Eurasia

Daily Memo: Ukraine Aid, Russia-China Ties

Drones for Ukraine. The U.K. will deliver at least 120,000 drones to Ukraine by the end of the year, its largest-ever drone package for...

The Future of Nuclear Modernization

During the Cold War, there was a certain logic to the nuclear balance of power that kept things relatively orderly. The ability to strike...

The Crisis of NATO

The crisis of NATO was triggered by the collapse of the Soviet Union. The alliance was created to protect the regions of Europe occupied...

George Answers Your Questions: The Future of War Is Here

The Future of War Is Here March 30, 2026 Question: How can you say the Russian soldiers are “trained, brave and capable,” as the Russian soldiers...

Hormuz and the Slow-Burn Fertilizer Supply Shock

Oil and gas are not the only critical commodities shut in by the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz....

The Future of War Is Here

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In my book “The Future of War,” which was published in 1996, I wrote that the future of warfare would be based on unmanned...

George Answers Your Questions: Beyond Iran: China, Russia and Europe

Beyond Iran: China, Russia and Europe March 23, 2026 Question: Isn’t the Trump administration’s real goal in the Iran war to limit China’s future capability to...

Logistical Complications for Russian Energy Exports

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(click to enlarge) Against the backdrop of the war in the Middle East, sharply rising energy prices, and the temporary easing of U.S. sanctions on...

Disinformation: A New Battlespace for Democracy

Democracies are inherently ill-prepared to deal with the proliferation of information warfare. While state-sponsored propaganda is by no means new, the digital age has...

How Iran Is Repricing Geography

Last week, the International Maritime Organization submitted a proposal to protect shipping in the Persian Gulf that’s modeled on the Black Sea grain initiative,...

Beyond Iran: China, Russia and Europe

The war in Iran continues, its outcome uncertain and length unknown. And though the conflict has already affected the global system significantly, things are...

Conditions for US-Russia Rapprochement Fall Into Place

Seven months after the historic Alaska summit between Russia and the United States, the time may finally be right for a rapprochement. In a...

Russia’s Limited Gains From the Middle East War

The war in the Middle East and resulting restrictions on hydrocarbon supplies through the Strait of Hormuz appear to be working in Russia’s favor....

George Answers Your Questions: European Nuclear Umbrella, Risks of a United Europe

Munich Security Conference and Europe’s Future Feb. 16, 2026 Question: Although the Europeans have some nuclear capability of their own, it is utterly insufficient to dissuade...

Russo-Chinese Ties Lose Their Luster

Russo-Chinese relations seem to be doing well. Just ask their leaders. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping (again) praised...

George Answers Your Questions: Comparing US Cycles

George Answers Your Questions: The Dubai Talks on the Ukraine War Jan. 31, 2026 Question: You have written about the 80-year institutional cycle and the 50-year...

Latest Posts

Central Asia is a highly strategic region traditionally trapped between several major powers but generally dominated by Russia, whose primary objective remains protecting the buffer zones that extend all the way to Eastern Europe.

The Russian government’s power depends on the security services, provision of economic incentives to a small group of elites and the acquiescence of the Russian population.

Ongoing regional and ethnic tensions threaten the unity of Central Asia and thus, sometimes, to the security of Russia.

Eurasia is highly exposed to Russia economically, especially when it comes to currencies, remittances and labor. Nevertheless, as the Russian economy weakens, partly due to the exporters’ crisis, its financial troubles are contributing to Central Asia’s slow destabilization.

While Russia is the dominant force, the economic slowdown in China, which is a major benefactor of much of Eurasia, is a major risk for Central Asian economies.

Regional Assessment of Russia

Regional Assessment of Central Asia

From our Forecast...

Russia will continue to conduct covert and non-military operations to take control and maintain control of its buffers.

Eurasia in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: On US and Iranian Weapons Production

Shifting focus. Top U.S. defense officials have held talks with executives of several major automakers, including General Motors and Ford Motor, about producing weapons...

Pakistan’s Emerging Role in the Middle East

One of the more overlooked consequences of the Iran war is the emergence of Pakistan as a third-party intermediary between Washington and Tehran. Iran...

Live Discussion: April 2026 Charter Member Discussion

This video is restricted to Charter members only