Eurasia

The Asian Aspect of the US-Russia Detente

The ongoing diplomacy between the United States and Russia suggests that the conflict in Ukraine will, at some point, come to an end. That...

US and Russia Find Common Ground in the Middle East

The United States and Russia held their third round of talks on Ukraine in Riyadh this week, reportedly focused on a ceasefire in the...

The Limits of a US-Russia Detente

The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are linked, at least in U.S. efforts to resolve them. In many ways, a contiguous shatter...

Engineering an End to the Ukraine War

FREE
When the United States entered talks with North Vietnam near the end of the Vietnam War, it hadn’t been militarily defeated, but it had...

Russia’s Severe Labor Crunch

FREE
(click to enlarge) The Kremlin needs higher production to meet the needs of the domestic economy, sustain exports and supply the military, but a severe...

Graphic Essay: The Evolution of NATO

For the past 75 years, NATO has been the de facto defender of Europe. Virtually every country on the Continent has its own armed...

Turkey and Turmoil in Europe and the Middle East

Massive changes on Turkey’s northern and southern flanks are reshaping its strategic landscape. U.S.-Russia diplomacy has important implications for European security, creating an opening...

Military Challenges and Opportunities in the Arctic

The U.S.-Russia talks to end the conflict in Ukraine are really about redefining the overall U.S.-Russia relationship, a process that will require both to...

The Ukraine War and the Consequences for Russia

I have come under criticism lately from those who challenge my view that Russia is in decline and is not a threat for the...

Reaction in the Russian Periphery

Though still in its early stages, forged U.S.-Russia diplomacy has compelled several nations on Russia’s periphery to rethink some of their strategic positions. Poland,...

Morality in Geopolitics

The negotiations over a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine war bring to light an uncomfortable truth: In geopolitics, ethics tend to be coincidental, not...

Ukraine’s Biggest Backers

FREE
(click to enlarge) NATO states near Russia view Ukraine’s defense as essential to their own security, and the aid data bears this out. For the...

A Russian View of the Ukraine Peace Talks

The reports surrounding the Ukraine peace talks in Saudi Arabia held between the United States and Russia – but not Ukraine – suggest a...

The US Geostrategy and the Old World Order

The United States is overhauling its entire foreign policy. In this new approach, Washington expects allies (as opposed to the United States) to take...

Speculating on the Summit in Saudi Arabia

At its heart, Geopolitical Futures is a forecasting company. But before we forecast, we analyze. And before we analyze, we speculate. We rarely publish...

Russia-US Negotiations Open the Next Phase Of Restructuring the World

FREE
From 1945 until the early 1990s, the global order was based on the hostility between the United States and the Soviet Union. It was...

Latest Posts

Central Asia is a highly strategic region traditionally trapped between several major powers but generally dominated by Russia, whose primary objective remains protecting the buffer zones that extend all the way to Eastern Europe.

The Russian government’s power depends on the security services, provision of economic incentives to a small group of elites and the acquiescence of the Russian population.

Ongoing regional and ethnic tensions threaten the unity of Central Asia and thus, sometimes, to the security of Russia.

Eurasia is highly exposed to Russia economically, especially when it comes to currencies, remittances and labor. Nevertheless, as the Russian economy weakens, partly due to the exporters’ crisis, its financial troubles are contributing to Central Asia’s slow destabilization.

While Russia is the dominant force, the economic slowdown in China, which is a major benefactor of much of Eurasia, is a major risk for Central Asian economies.

Regional Assessment of Russia

Regional Assessment of Central Asia

From our Forecast...

Russia will continue to conduct covert and non-military operations to take control and maintain control of its buffers.

Eurasia in our Memos

Continue to the category

More from Eurasia

Continue to the category

Latest Posts

Daily Memo: Unrest Continues in Gaza

Gaza protests. Gaza residents have launched rare protests against Hamas, expressing growing frustration as the war with Israel continues. Demonstrators accused Hamas of dragging civilians into...

The Asian Aspect of the US-Russia Detente

The ongoing diplomacy between the United States and Russia suggests that the conflict in Ukraine will, at some point, come to an end. That...

Daily Memo: Black Sea Deal, Visit to Moscow

Limited deal. The United States reached separate agreements with Russia and Ukraine on a ceasefire in the Black Sea, following talks in Riyadh this...

Get Geopolitical Futures FREE newsletter

Understanding Our Geopolitical Model

Sign up now and receive our special report Understanding our Geopolitical Model

Get weekly analysis from New York Times bestselling author George Friedman and our global team of analysts, plus special offers.

Subscribe Now


America in Transition &
The Geopolitics of the American President

FREE with an annual subscription to Geopolitical Futures.

Subscribe Now