HomeFrom the Desk of George Friedman

From the Desk of George Friedman

Return to Forecasting – ‘Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe’

As I hope you will remember, last month I had been writing about the process of forecasting, sharing with our subscribers the process we will use to draw up the next 30-year forecast by around the new year. This process was rudely interrupted by the Wagner Group, Vladimir Putin and the rest, and I had […]

Forecasting Russia

The points below are drawn from my book, "The Next 100 Years," which was published in 2009. In the points that follow, I try...

Predictions on Russia, Wagner and Ukraine

Given circumstances, I decided to combine my ongoing series on forecasting methods with current events in Ukraine. The source book is “Flashpoints: The Emerging...

Where Does Russia Stand Now?

There has been a great deal of talk that the Wagner Group's attempted insurrection over the weekend may have weakened Russian President Vladimir Putin....

How to Read a Nation’s Intentions

Last week, several readers challenged my assertion that China was acting out of fear of the United States. They said the U.S. had in...

Forecasts From ‘The Next 100 Years’: Al-Qaida and China

“The Next 100 Years” is the first book I wrote that was intended to be a serious forecasting book. Others followed, but this perfected...

The State of the World

Looking at the current state of the world is a requisite step in forecasting. The way countries interact is shaped by necessity – be...

Starting the New Forecast

It is time to reconsider the past and assess a forecast for the future. The forecasts we make concern the geopolitical system. They are...

Reflections on Our Past and Future

Be warned, dear reader: This column is much more a personal reflection on geopolitical forecasting than a piece of geopolitical forecasting itself. It is...

A Convocation of Spies

Over the past weekend, major global media outlets revealed that the heads of intelligence of about two dozen countries held a (formerly) secret meeting...

Considering Maskirovka

Soon after Josef Stalin signed a mutual defense pact with Adolf Hitler, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill said that Russia was a mystery wrapped...

A Simplified Guide to the Debt Crisis

I have argued repeatedly that the United States has been heading into a period of massive economic instability. It’s been evident to anyone who...

Latest Posts

Get Geopolitical Futures FREE newsletter

Understanding Our Geopolitical Model

Sign up now and receive our special report Understanding our Geopolitical Model

Get weekly analysis from New York Times bestselling author George Friedman and our global team of analysts, plus special offers.

Subscribe Now


The Geopolitics of the American President

FREE with an annual subscription to Geopolitical Futures.

Subscribe Now