HomeFrom the Desk of George Friedman

From the Desk of George Friedman

A Simplified Guide to the Debt Crisis

I have argued repeatedly that the United States has been heading into a period of massive economic instability. Itā€™s been evident to anyone who bothers to look but is now impossible to ignore. As I see it, there are two dimensions of the crisis. The first is the danger of a default by the federal […]

The Next Phase in the China-US Confrontation

Last week, I wrote about the major expansion of the U.S.-Philippine alliance, Japanese alignment with Taiwan and possible three-way links with South Korea, and...

Memorial Day in Singapore

My wife and I will spend this yearā€™s Memorial Day in Singapore. On Sunday, we will visit the Battle Box, Great Britainā€™s command center...

Shifts in the Western Pacific

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visited Washington last week, where he signed what is essentially a collective defense agreement. In doing so, he sealed...

Russia and the Nightmare Scenario

I recently wrote an article that raised the question of whether the Russian government was united or even functional. The basis for the article...

The Russian Mystery

There are too many unknowns to count in the Ukraine war. From the upcoming spring offensive to covert U.S. intelligence operations, mysteries abound. But...

Chinese-Philippine Confrontation

The Philippine coast guard reported last week that two of its ships were involved in a confrontation with the Chinese navy in the South...

Poland on My Mind

During my recent bout with COVID-19, I apparently announced to my wife in the middle of the night that we were in Poland and...

Victory Day

We are a few weeks away from the anniversary of Victory Day, which marks the Soviet Unionā€™s defeat of Nazi Germany. The annual parade...

Transitional Presidencies

Lately Iā€™ve been focused on the predictability of U.S. political transitions, which occur every 50 years or so and which indicate that we are...

The Logic of American Strategy and War

In recent weeks I have focused on the social and economic evolution of the United States. Obviously, we also need to discuss U.S. strategic...

Questions and Answers to the American Crisis

The article I published earlier this week about the intensifying crisis in the United States generated a significant number of comments that ought to...

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The Geopolitics of the American President

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