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From the Desk of George Friedman

The Beginning of Social Dysfunction

A few weeks ago, I laid out a model for thinking about the coronavirus crisis. I argued that there were four structures operating: medical,...

George Friedman’s Thoughts: Tuesday Night Poker

Earlier this week I wrote a book review about the breakdown of community and friendship in our time. In that review, I spoke of...

Supply Chains and a Novel Path to Conflict

Though ā€œsupply chainā€ became a household term only in the past generation, it has been around since humans have been engaging in commerce. One...

George Friedman’s Thoughts: Thinking About This Moment

My job is to write, and my goal in writing is to put things in perspective. The world has been to me an endlessly...

The Coronavirus Closes Borders

The border between the United States and Canada has been closed. I donā€™t recall that ever happening before; Iā€™m not sure what it is...

The Calculated Risk of the Coronavirus

We live in a world filled with risks, some large and some small. When we step off the sidewalk to cross the street as...

Modeling the US Reaction to the Coronavirus

The United States is under enormous pressure. The nature of the particular pressure is unique, though pressure on the United States from various forces...

George Friedman’s Thoughts: Whatever Happened to Brexit?

The planet has reached an extraordinary moment of unity. The overriding focus is on the coronavirus and the radical restructuring of our lives and...

Quarantine and the Supply Chain

The global medical community appears to have devised a strategy for mitigating the coronavirus that depends largely on quarantine, or limiting contact among the...

George Friedman’s Thoughts: Compromising on Corona

Battling the coronavirus is essential. But the battle has costs, which are invariably measured against the gain. ā€œNo matter what the costā€ ā€“ the...

Oil Prices

Since before World War I and throughout the 1970s, the people who controlled oil had a lever for controlling others. Since the 1980s, the...

George Friedman’s Thoughts: The Next President Will Be Over 70

Perhaps the most important thing that has emerged in the presidential election campaign over the past few weeks is that the next president of...

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