HomeFrom the Desk of George Friedman

From the Desk of George Friedman

Thinking About Global Annihilation

We are in the midst of a major confrontation between the U.S. and Russia. I was there when President Ronald Reagan bluffed the Soviets into trying to keep up with developing space-based weapons the U.S. didn’t actually have. I was there when, as the Soviets threatened to send an airborne force to intervene in the […]

Russia’s True Strategy Shows Itself

If you look at the whole of Russia’s behavior around Ukraine, its strategy becomes clear – or as clear as clear gets in geopolitics....

The German Question

Regardless of how the Ukraine crisis ends, one thing present but often overlooked is the German question. It’s a question that has hounded Europe...

From the European Buffers to the Intermarium

Russia has been in the process of reclaiming its buffer zones – the areas in its periphery such as the Caucasus, the Baltics, Central...

The Continuing Storm

It has been about two years since “The Storm Before the Calm: America’s Discord, the Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond” was...

America’s Wars and Failures

Sixty years ago, in 1962, the United States made the decision to go to war in Vietnam, deploying major ground and air forces to...

Russia, US and Ukraine: The State of Play

When nations negotiate, a quiet settles in before the threats begin. Such is the case now between the U.S. and Russia, which will soon...

The Russian Treaty Proposal

We have been operating with a model of Russia. Having lost its non-Russian territories with the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia is missing...

A Moment of Miracles

Judaism and Christianity share many things, but the thing most binding is the constant sense of the magnificent impossibility of the world: the miracle...

The Republic of COVID-19

The emergence of the omicron variant drives home an essential point: There is no evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic will end. It might, but...

Ukraine, War and American Doctrine

During the Vietnam War, an American doctrine emerged whereby wars were primarily political and waging wars signaled to other powers that the U.S. was...

Russia and Ukraine: War or Bluff?

Two weeks ago, I wrote an analysis of Russian strategy titled “Russia’s Move.” Here’s a brief recap: When the Soviet Union collapsed, it lost...

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