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From the Desk of George Friedman

D-Day and Stalin

Nearly 75 years after it was fought, D-Day remains one of the most vividly recalled battles in history. It was also one of the most decisive. There are those who will argue that the Allies would have won World War II regardless of the outcome of the Battle of Normandy. Indeed, similar arguments are made […]

Command of the Sea

Command of the sea is the foundation of American national security. Adm. Alfred Thayer Mahan, the greatest strategist in American history, identified it as the core American interest (though he wrote before the war on terrorism began and before the development of nuclear weapons). The United States, he argued, can be threatened only by an […]

The US, Iran and a New American Deployment

Iran’s influence has spread across the Middle East, and the U.S. is pushing back.

Iran and the Problem of Occupation Warfare

For the U.S., defeating the Iranian military wouldn’t be the end of the war.

The Hong Kong Extradition Bill and China’s Weakness

The proposed law is a sign that China isn’t as strong as it would like everyone to believe.

Europe Redefined

The European Parliament elections are a benchmark for a continent in flux.

Supply Chains and Geopolitics

U.S. tariffs on China could disrupt supply chains on which American companies depend.

The Battle for the Past

Whoever defines the past controls the present and future.

A Trip to Romania

The first time I visited post-communist Romania was in 2009, the same year my book “The Next 100 Years” was published. In it, I forecast that Russia would become increasingly aggressive and, over time, increasingly weak as its underlying economic problems manifested themselves. I also forecast that Ukraine would become the flashpoint between Russia and […]

The Jerusalem Talks

Security officials from Russia, the U.S. and Israel are meeting next week to discuss regional developments.

Visiting China

I can’t explain China. I don’t know it well enough, and sometimes it seems to me that the Chinese are experts on their country, but they’re experts that don’t agree. Still, China is an American adversary, and an adversarial relationship between these two countries is dangerous even if it doesn’t lead to war. Therefore, I […]

The Meaning of Memorial Day

I’m writing this on Memorial Day, a day dedicated to remembering those who died fighting for the United States and to enjoying the first outdoor gatherings of the summer. For some, marking the day by enjoying the pleasures of a barbecue seems a betrayal of the dead. For me, it is a celebration of life. […]