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From the Desk of George Friedman

The Origins of New US-Turkish Relations

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For several years, there has been a significant shift underway in U.S. strategy toward the Middle East, where Washington has consistently sought to avoid...

The Pressure on China

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The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has begun minor operations to try to quell the unrest in Hong Kong. This is a step that the...

Is a Multipolar World Emerging?

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The U.S. is still the pre-eminent global power, whether the world likes it or not.

International Organizations Are Tools for Powerful Countries

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Nov. 15, 2017 Multilateral groupings are usually impotent, so why are there so many of them?

The Role of Political Leaders

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Even the most powerful ones are constrained by impersonal forces.

Midway: The Battle That Almost Lost the War

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June 7, 2017 Japan’s defeat at Midway was a freak, and that freak created the world we live in.

The Geopolitical Logic of the US-China Trade War

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The dispute was decades in the making.

US Military Options in Iran

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The United States has openly accused Iran of being behind the drone and cruise missile attacks on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery. Now the...

Why America Loses Wars

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The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is moving to its inevitable conclusion. The Taliban, the radical Islamists the U.S. was fighting, are taking back control...

China as a Third World Country

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There is much discussion about the surging Chinese economy and the expanding international influence of China. There is no question that China’s economy has...

China’s Strategic Standpoint

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One of the hardest problems of foreign policy is developing an accurate evaluation of a potential adversary’s intentions and capabilities, which are frequently separate...

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