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From the Desk of George Friedman

The Truth About the US-China Thucydides Trap

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We remember Thucydides as a historian thanks to his documentation of the Peloponnesian War, but we often forget that he was also a philosopher....

Is a Multipolar World Emerging?

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The U.S. is still the pre-eminent global power, whether the world likes it or not.

The Origins of New US-Turkish Relations

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For several years, there has been a significant shift underway in U.S. strategy toward the Middle East, where Washington has consistently sought to avoid...

International Organizations Are Tools for Powerful Countries

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Nov. 15, 2017 Multilateral groupings are usually impotent, so why are there so many of them?

The Pressure on China

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The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has begun minor operations to try to quell the unrest in Hong Kong. This is a step that the...

The Role of Political Leaders

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Even the most powerful ones are constrained by impersonal forces.

Time For Putin’s Hail Mary Pass

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Alexander Dvornikov isn’t exactly a household name, but it could be soon. He’s the Russian general President Vladimir Putin has put in charge of...

Learning Lessons From the War in Ukraine

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After a war, all parties turn to “lessons learned,” a phrase that has become commonplace. A war is, in a hideous way, a learning...

Midway: The Battle That Almost Lost the War

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June 7, 2017 Japan’s defeat at Midway was a freak, and that freak created the world we live in.

The Geopolitical Logic of the US-China Trade War

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The dispute was decades in the making.

How the Ukrainian Battlefield Redefines the World

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The war in Ukraine is a humanitarian tragedy to be sure, but that’s not why it has commanded the world’s attention. After all, there...

First Thoughts on a National Tragedy

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A physician is taught to avoid emotional involvement with patients. If he suffers with them, the pain will break him and his judgement will...

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