HomeFrom the Desk of George Friedman

From the Desk of George Friedman

Evaluating Russia’s Performance in Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine had two goals. The first was to take control of Ukraine, intending to complete the task begun in Belarus...

How the Ukraine War Might Shift the Global System

War is agony for everyone involved. Wars are bloody affairs that have consequences not just for the soldiers who fight them but also for...

My Mistake on Ukraine

Since the beginning of the Russian armored buildup, and even after the entry into Donbas, I argued that the Russians would not invade Ukraine...

The Fog of War and the Grammar of War

The fog of war is an ancient concept, worn but true. Advancing on what he thinks is an enemy position, sitting in an armored...

Europe and the Ukraine Crisis

Last week, the European Union’s highest court ruled that Brussels can withhold funding from member states that violate the rule of law, slapping down...

Americans, Fear and War

We are living in a time when war appears imminent, but for many of us, this isn’t our first rodeo. I grew up during...

The Phases of War

As we consider the American claim that Russia intends to attack Ukraine – which the Kremlin denies – it is useful to consider in...

Is an Invasion of Ukraine Imminent?

Over the past few days, the United States has warned that a Russian invasion of Ukraine may be imminent. The chairman of the Joint...

Thinking About Global Annihilation

We are in the midst of a major confrontation between the U.S. and Russia. I was there when President Ronald Reagan bluffed the Soviets...

Russia’s True Strategy Shows Itself

If you look at the whole of Russia’s behavior around Ukraine, its strategy becomes clear – or as clear as clear gets in geopolitics....

The German Question

Regardless of how the Ukraine crisis ends, one thing present but often overlooked is the German question. It’s a question that has hounded Europe...

From the European Buffers to the Intermarium

Russia has been in the process of reclaiming its buffer zones – the areas in its periphery such as the Caucasus, the Baltics, Central...

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