HomeFrom the Desk of George Friedman

From the Desk of George Friedman

Europe Comes to Boil: the Balkans, Hungary and Russia

George Friedman - January 12, 2024

A few months ago, when Gaza joined Ukraine as a theater of intense war, I wrote about another potential conflict emerging in the Balkans. I do not listen much to sources, but two people I trust for their insight on the region warned me that a war was highly probable. I reported as much to […]

The Strategies of the Israel-Hamas War

George Friedman - January 7, 2024

It is difficult to understand the strategy of a country at war sitting outside the command center. However, when analyzed from the initiation of...

2024 Annual Forecast: China

George Friedman - January 2, 2024

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

China and the Philippines Square Off

George Friedman - December 27, 2023

The Philippines has long been an important component of Washington’s alliance network in the Asia-Pacific. Its geography is such that Manila can help to...

2024 Annual Forecast: America and War

George Friedman - December 22, 2023

In our 2024 forecast published last week, where we laid out the domestic issues facing the United States, we said we do not foresee...

2024 Annual Forecast: The United States

George Friedman - December 15, 2023

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

Upcoming New Forecasts

George Friedman - December 8, 2023

A while ago, I wrote about preparing a new batch of short-term and 20- to 30-year forecasts. We are now finalizing and readying them...

Remembering Henry Kissinger

George Friedman - December 1, 2023

Henry Kissinger has died at age 100. He was never a man who could be mourned, nor one who would pass away quietly. I...

A Shift in the EU

George Friedman - November 28, 2023

Last week’s election in the Netherlands produced a radical change. Traditionally, the Netherlands is among the most classically liberal states in Europe. But in...