GPF Team

Geopolitical Futures is a company that charts the course of the international system. It’s an ambitious mission, maybe even foolhardy, but hear us out.
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Why Syria Can’t Be Put Back Together

Weekly Graphic

Sept. 8, 2017 Lebanon’s recent history provides valuable insights into what we can expect from Syria’s civil war and future. Lebanon is much smaller than Syria, and its ethnic groups were more evenly proportioned before its civil war. Even so, in 1975, it went to war – and at war it stayed for more than 15 years. We expect Syria’s civil war – which is already midway through its sixth year – to last at least as long.

Lebanon’s post-war years haven’t exactly been peaceful either. Syria’s will be worse. Syria is a broken country, and no amount of diplomatic handwringing or bombing is going to put it back together. The reason is simple: ethnic and sectarian chaos.

The Rohingya Crisis Making Geopolitical Waves

Podcast

Sept. 8, 2017 States and non-state entities outside the region are beginning to take a greater interest in Myanmar’s Rohingya crisis. Sign up here for free updates on topics like this.

The Market Oracle – Hurricane Harvey’s Short-Term Impact May Be Higher Oil Prices

Press
It won’t be clear what will happen to oil prices until we know what kind of damage coastal facilities have sustained, but the possibility of higher prices can’t be...

Real Clear World – Revisiting Europe, the Heroic Delusion

Press
The European Union is what political philosopher Leo Strauss might have called a “heroic delusion.” It is a noble dream, a dream that the only thing necessary for peace...

Business Insider – Hurricane Harvey might raise oil prices — but only temporarily

Press
If there is damage to the Colonial Pipeline—which transports more than 40 percent of the Texas Gulf Coast’s refined product, according to the EIA—US consumers would not only have...

Syria’s Shattered Future

Deep Dive

Sept. 7, 2017 The U.S. and Russia both have hopes for Syria’s future. They’re both likely to be disappointed.

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