GPF Team

Geopolitical Futures is a company that charts the course of the international system. It’s an ambitious mission, maybe even foolhardy, but hear us out.

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Equities – How Effective is US Missile Defense Against a North Korean Attack

Advancements in BMD could have a major effect on the battlefield and could limit the casualties in a war. But the technology is too limited, expensive, and technically and...

Iraqi Kurdistan’s Unlikely Ally

Sept. 22, 2017 Turkey has invested a lot in the Iraqi Kurds, and it isn’t about to throw it away.

Turkey and a Dangerous Power Vacuum in Northwestern Syria

Sept. 22, 2017 Turkish forces recently began massing on the southwestern border with Syria. As many as 80 military vehicles, including an unknown number of tanks and medical aid trucks, were dispatched to a part of Hatay province that’s approximately 30 miles (50 kilometers) from the border. Another convoy of an unspecified number of military vehicles was reportedly sent to another area of Hatay, just 2 miles from Syria’s border, and a third collection of 20 army vehicles was seen close to the border near Bab al-Hawa in Syria, about 7 miles from Reyhanli.

By themselves, these movements might seem innocuous – it is, after all, normal for Turkey to move soldiers and materiel around its borders depending on where it believes threats could arise. But context is everything, and the context of these deployments is not routine. On Sept. 15, Turkey, Iran and Russia agreed in Astana to set up a safe zone in Syria’s Idlib province, just west of Aleppo. They reportedly agreed to divide the province into three zones, each controlled by a different country. That same day, a pro-government Turkish newspaper reported that 25,000 Turkish soldiers were preparing for deployment into Idlib province, with the goal of taking control of a roughly 2,000-square-mile (5,000-square-kilometer) area with over 2 million inhabitants.

India’s Centralization Moves

Sept. 22, 2017 Allison Fedirka and Xander Snyder discuss Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s moves to assert greater central authority over aspects of India’s economy and financial institutions. Sign up here for free updates on topics like this.

The Market Oracle – Why US Missile Defense Won’t Likely Protect Us from a North Korea Attack

Advancements in BMD could have a major effect on the battlefield and could limit the casualties in a war. But the technology is too limited, expensive, and technically and...

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