The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance.
Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our conclusions on these issues.
Turkey, Serbia: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Serbia. Reports suggest his meetings were more cordial than we might have anticipated. What is Turkey’s interest in Serbia, and what is Serbia’s interest in Turkey? Are these just normal diplomatic niceties, or is there some common ground between the two?
Russia, Germany: According to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russian-German trade is up 25 percent this year, and investments are up too. Improved relations between the two would have implications for our forecast. Are these reliable statistics? What was the volume of trade in previous