The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance.
Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our conclusions on these issues.
Somalia-United Arab Emirates: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) signed an agreement with the administration of the Republic of Somaliland to establish a UAE military base with airport access in the coastal city of Berbera. Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan said the deal would bolster security in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The UAE would take over security management of the strait. The United States and Egypt were party to the negotiations. We need to see how this intersects with Iran, which expanded its naval battle box to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during its most recent naval exercises.