The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance.
Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our conclusions on these issues.
China: Sun Zhengcai, a Politburo member considered to be a potential successor to Chinese President Xi Jinping, is reportedly under investigation for graft and has replaced as Communist Party boss for the city of Chongqing by an ally of Xi. We forecast that Xi would consolidate power ahead of the Party Congress this fall, but Sun is the highest-ranking official to fall in some time. We need to understand whether this risks sparking a destabilizing power struggle or backlash against Xi’s moves and examine what it tells us about the broader state of play in Beijing.
Philippines: Philippine President Rodrig