The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance.

Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our conclusions on these issues.

Aug. 25, 2016

  • U.S.-Russia: U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov are meeting in Geneva for a showdown on Syria. Any signs of a breakthrough?
  • Europe-Turkey: Sweden is calling for better relations with Turkey. Germany is threatening to pull out from İncirlik air base. What, if anything, is Europe’s position on Turkey now?
  • Turkey: Turkey’s intervention in Syria appears quite small, with about 20 to 30 tanks and 350 troops. Are there signs of a larger intervention?
  • Iran: Iranian media is filled with articles discussing TV interruption of President Hassan Rouhani’s speech. The Iranian intelligence service is being criticized publicly. This is not dying down.
  • Iran-U.S.: Four small Iranian boats approached a U.S. destroyer. Are we facing a new round of naval tension?
  • Russia: Russia has publicized its new air-to-surface hypersonic missile. How widely deployed are these and what do we have on their performance?
  • Russia: Russia is holding large-scale snap drills near Ukraine and Baltics. Any signs of intentions beyond drills?
  • Russia: There are reports that pension funds will be frozen through 2017. What does this mean for retirees?
  • Turkey-U.S.: Kerry and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu talked by phone and Kerry confirmed that the Kurdish YFP forces are withdrawing east of the Euphrates. How does this effect U.S.-Turkish relations?
  • Brazil: There have been media reports of Brazil’s success in selling bonds on global market albeit at premiums. Is Brazil recovering?
  • Ethiopia: Ethiopian troops were killed in the southeast of the country. The government says there is no need for foreign intervention. We didn’t know anyone was offering to intervene. How bad is this getting?
  • China: Xinhua is reporting that Chinese unemployment figures are accurate. The Chinese are increasingly sensitive over questions about the accuracy of the data it releases. Shall we read this as evidence that all is well with them, or that there are problems?
  • Afghanistan: The government is reassuring the public on Helmand’s security. How bad is the situation there?