The items listed below represent potential emerging issues that our analysts are tracking. These can be long term or short term, but will be updated daily. If an item on our Watch List becomes critical, we will email you a full analysis explaining its significance.

Each Saturday, we will follow up our daily Watch List for each week with our conclusions on these issues.

Aug. 18, 2016

  • Russia-Iran: The Iranian government is insisting that there are no Russian bases in Iran. The Iranian constitution forbids foreign bases. Iran is saying that the Russians are only refueling there. Is this causing a problem for Russo-Iranian relations?
  • Iran: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has warned the Iranian intelligence service not to be overly aggressive. The Majlis voted on a declaration praising Iranian intelligence. What is this about?
  • U.S.-Turkey: U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu talked on the phone today, likely about Kerry’s upcoming visit. Was anything important released on this?
  • Ethiopia: There is serious fighting developing in Ethiopia, which is on our list of China’s successors. What do we know about the warring sides?
  • Myanmar-China: Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi is in China. She has spoken of recalibrating her country’s policy with China. Does that actually mean anything?
  • China-U.S.: China is threatening tariffs on U.S. dumping of exports. Obviously this is in retaliation for U.S. actions. What exactly are they threatening with tariffs?
  • China: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has called on China’s planners to produce feasible plans. While this is obviously a good idea, is there any more meaning here?
  • Japan: Japan’s exports are declining according to a new report. Given Japan’s other problems, will this have significant effects on Japan’s stability?
  • Venezuela: Eighteen unions have criticized President Nicolás Maduro’s government. Labor unions were a major component of both Maduro’s and Hugo Chávez’s support. Is there a possibility the unions will join Henrique Capriles’ movement and oppose the government?
  • Russia: Russia has announced a quantum data communication system. This a few days after China launched a quantum satellite. Is this a major breakthrough or PR? And what is the state of U.S. and European quantum communication programs?
  • Turkey-Romania-U.S.: Euractiv published a story saying that U.S. nuclear weapons have been transferred from Turkey to Romania. Since the U.S. treats the location and movement of its nuclear weapons as extreme secrets, if this leaked, it is a major leak. Alternatively, it could be gossip or even disinformation by Russia. This is a subject on which those who know don’t talk, and those who talk don’t know. But has there been a major leak?