Turkey in the Long Run

The crisis is part of a systemic problem that rapidly emerging powers frequently encounter.

George Friedman |August 15, 2018

Too easily we lose sight of historical context, and when it comes to nations, context is a matter of decades or centuries, not hours or weeks. Those trying to understand Turkey’s financial crisis are checking the price of the lira each morning. Others are following the predictable script of financial crises by assigning the roles of victims and villains. In reality, the causes of Turkey’s crisis are complicated, and many have nothing to do with economics. Trouble has been percolating beneath the surface for years and has created the need for a major recalibration of all political and social systems. That is what is happening in Turkey right now: a recalibration. Financial crises, especially in emerging powers, are common. They destabilize and weaken, but as with the U.S. in 1929, they seldom destroy. Turkey is no different.

Historical Context

The Ottoman Empire had been a great empire, spreading its power deep into Europe, the Mediterranean, the Middle East and North Africa.

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