Editor’s note: The following report is our first Forecast Tracker, a biweekly checkup on the health of our annual forecast. We track its status in the normal course of our operations anyway, so we figured now was as good a time as any to share with you, our readers, the process by which we hold ourselves accountable.
First, a note about the graphics. The inputs are events that have happened in the world, many of which were the subject of separate analyses. (Example: Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un met for the Singapore summit.) We assess every event by giving it a letter grade relative to what we predicted, and plot it on our chart. The trend line approximates the trajectory of our forecast. Is it perfect? Certainly not. But in forecasting, deviation is the norm, and as soon as the situation changes, so too will our forecast.
We hope you enjoy this new feature, and please, as always, let us know what you think.
In the past two weeks, hostilities in the U.S.-China trade war esca