In our forecast for 2016, we said the following three things about North Korea: "1. At some point in 2016, it is highly likely that the DPRK will carry out some seemingly irrational action, from a nuclear test to sinking a ship. It will certainly engage in making bizarre threats. 2. The global media will become intensely concerned, feeling as if the world is on the brink of war. 3. No war will begin. It will all be part of the concerted and effective strategy the DPRK has pursued since the fall of the Soviet Union."

North Korea announced tod...