The Coming Crisis in South Asia

Oct. 13, 2016 Rising tensions in Kashmir mean the region can no longer be considered stable relative to the rest of Eurasia.

Deep Dive

|October 13, 2016

Summary

Conflict in Kashmir has destabilized the Indian subcontinent. Neither India nor Pakistan wants to escalate the conflict, but there are complications for both that make calming the situation difficult. A major conflict is not imminent, but the balance of power in the region is changing as the U.S. gets closer to India while Pakistan searches for allies.

Local unrest over the death of a young militant commander in Kashmir has had geopolitical consequences.
India is caught between prioritizing stability to protect its growing economy and needing to appear strong to other nations.
Pakistan is having an internal argument about the use of militant proxies to further its regional goals.
The U.S. is getting closer to India, which shifts the region’s balance of power; the ramifications are becoming evident as Russia explores opportunities with Pakistan.

Introduction

Our 2016 forecast was built on one key observation: that the Eurasian landmass is engulfed in a serie

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