By George Friedman
British Prime Minister David Cameron has been negotiating with European Council President Donald Tusk on an amendment to the agreement that governs British membership in the European Union. As many other European countries are experiencing, there is a rising opposition in Britain to EU membership. Cameron is in favor of membership but is also committed to holding a national referendum later this year or early next year on whether the United Kingdom should remain a part of the EU. At the same time, he has been trying to redefine the British relationship with the EU, in order to diminish the opposition.
A draft agreement was reached on Feb. 2 and it is, like all international agreements, long and impenetrable. It is also subject to approval by all EU member states, and there are still some details – particularly on the key issue of a graduated system of benefits for European migrants – that are up for negotiation. Extracting the proposed agreement’s esse