Russians’ Attitudes Toward the War

Most have adapted to the new normal.

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Russian Support for the 'Special Military Operation'
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A year into what was supposed to be a short war, Russia has given little indication it is prepared to back down. Its Wagner paramilitary force has taken the lead in Bakhmut, the focus of the most intense fighting, while Ukraine steps up drone attacks and receives resupplies from NATO countries. For Moscow, a critical factor is the level of domestic support for the conflict.

Public approval in Russia has remained high and stable for most of the war, except briefly when the Kremlin announced a partial mobilization. Two waves of emigration, however, served as a release valve. By now, most Russians have adapted to the new normal. Their main concerns today have to do with the realignment of the Russian economy in response to Western sanctions, the exit from Russia of Western firms, and Kremlin decrees on import substitution. That said, people still fear a new wave of mobilization or a significant escalation of hostilities.

Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.