Russia and Israel in the Final Stretch

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

Forecast Tracker

GPF Staff |November 30, 2018

From the Forecast: “To move forward, the U.S. would have to ease sanctions on Russia. … It is very unlikely that sanctions will be reduced, which appears to leave U.S.-Russian relations suspended for now.”

and

“Russia will not be strong enough to secure its interests through force. It will intervene selectively where it must, but intervention will never be Russia’s first choice.”

Update: As 2018 ends and 2019 begins, we at GPF find ourselves transitioning from one annual forecast to the next. The incident at the Kerch Strait, then, comes at a curious time. Readers are no doubt familiar with the particulars, but for those who are not, last weekend Russia forcibly blocked Ukrainian naval ships from navigating the strait to enter the Sea of Azov. Each side has accused the other of wrongdoing, but for our purposes, the cause is less important than the effect, which is that it undermines our forecast on the trajectory of U.S.-Russia relations for what little remains of

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