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Geopolitical Forecasting

Analyzing the forces that drive nations’ behavior

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    Welcome to Geopolitical Futures

    We write for the learned public: for those of you who want to understand the world you live in and are citizens of every country, for the public engaged in all walks of life. We believe that democracy can survive only if there is a segment of society that is not caught up in the passions of the moment, but is eager to look at the world as it is. I and my team may have our personal beliefs, but in our work we strive to be objective and indifferent to the opinions swirling around the world. We hope you’ll join us in our quest.

    - George Friedman,
    Founder, Geopolitical Futures


    Unbiased, Objective Reports

    We give you a radically non-ideological perspective, based on a different view of the world. Our selection of what’s important derives from geopolitical trends, not from the media or online chatter.

    Intelligence Analysis

    We use intelligence analysis to discover the small things that will define the future. Geopolitics defines the broad thrusts; intelligence analysis tracks its movements.

    Successful Forecasting

    Our forecasting model is based on the assumption that impersonal forces – things like geography, politics, economics, military capability and demography – govern world leaders, not the other way around. It’s an important distinction you don’t see anywhere else.


    Geopolitical Forecasts

    Geopolitical Futures predicts the actions nations will take based on global cycles and patterns of conflict. Our annual forecast highlights processes that will have lasting consequences and broad geopolitical impact.
    Our forecast:

    1. Reveals the underlying forces driving global behavior
    2. Explains how the present fits into longer-term geopolitical processes
    3. Shows which countries are on the rise
    4. Anticipates shifts in the global economy and trade

    Our Content

    As a Geopolitical Futures subscriber, you’ll receive regular updates on what’s important today and what’s to come in the future. This includes real-time Briefs on the world’s most pressing geopolitical events, daily in-depth Analysis from our global team of analysts, and a concise Daily Memo to give you exactly what is geopolitically important today.

    FREE Featured Content

    Brief: Russia Accuses Ukraine of Smuggling Fuel

    Background: Relations between Russia and Ukraine have been severely strained for years. Russia wants to bring Ukraine, part of the buffer between it and...

    Daily Memo: Alternative Indo-Pacific Supply Chains, Russian-European Relations Up in Flames

    Bypassing China. Australia, India and Japan formally launched a so-called Supply Chain Resilience Initiative, an effort to present a supply chain alternative to China...

    Russia’s New Strategy for Central Asia

    While Russia was grabbing attention with its buildup and withdrawal of military forces along its western border with Ukraine, it was making a different,...

    Podcast: Talking Geopolitics

     Subscriber-only Analysis 

    Daily Memo: The US and Philippines Reportedly Reach Key Deal

    Agreement reached. The U.S. and the Philippines may have finally put to rest concerns...

    Daily Memo: US-Indonesian Drills, Armenia’s Border Security

    U.S.-Indonesian relations. Indonesia and the U.S. are holding their largest-ever joint army exercises on...

    George Friedman

    COVID and Cars

    We have moved into the true second phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous phases were merely passing bubbles. This...

    The Geopolitics of Heartbreak

    The U.S. military presence in Afghanistan is winding down, just as it had in Iraq and Vietnam. There are...

    Understanding Our Geopolitical Model

    Information Collection

    Extensive open-source information collection keeps us abreast of world events no matter how obscure. It draws from English and foreign language sources and includes traditional media as well as government, institutional and other primary source report from all over the world.

    Strategic Intelligence

    We make sense of the world by overlaying collected information with our model. Our model tells us how to expect a country to behave based on what it must have in order to remain secure, the limits imposed on it and the means at its disposal to take action.

    Net Assessment

    The net assessment is the current snapshot of a country’s position and power at a particular moment in time.  It reflects the realities facing a country in terms of what cannot be done and what must be done in the present, thereby enabling us to predict its future behavior.

    Understand the Issues That Are Shaping the World's Future

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    • Other exclusive content
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