Europe is coming back from the summer holiday, and as it does, Brexit negotiations, Italy’s government budget and confusion in the Balkans are all making headlines. Chinese President Xi Jinping is also back from his annual summer retreat with top Chinese officials – and looks stronger than ever. Important as these developments are, other events took precedence in the forecast tracker this week. The recent drama in NAFTA talks necessitated a bottom-up review of our forecast for the negotiations. And the relative quiet in Saudi Arabia in recent months seemed louder to us than EU horse trading or Xi’s renewed confidence. These are the two issues we will focus on this week.
Jacob L. Shapiro, director of analysis
From the Forecast: “NAFTA negotiations are ongoing, but the probability of the trade deal ending and tariffs being restored is extremely low. All parties need the relationship. In the U.S., too many states benefit from trade with Mexico or Canada. Mexico is the to