These are what we consider major mid- to long-term issues in the world that are linked to our annual forecast. The associated taskings will require monitoring for at least a week and likely longer, as they reflect ongoing processes that will develop over time. All items from last week’s mid-term taskings remain active. Tomorrow we will follow up with our findings on this week’s daily Watch List items. Venezuela: Venezuela appears to be reaching a tipping point. The current level of instability is not permanent, and President Nicolás Maduro appears to be under significant pressure. The opposition appears to be gaining strength and is organizing itself better. It has constitutional reasons to press for a legal solution at some point before the end of the year. We need to be watching Venezuela very closely now and recheck our basic assumptions on how things are working there so that we are not caught off guard. The Balkans: There have been whispers and unreliable reports that Islamic militancy is growing in the Balkans. Hundreds of Bosnians have joined the Islamic State, Macedonia has claimed that IS recruiters hide in Kosovo, and Macedonia and Turkey are cooperating to arrest potential suspects in Turkey. Let’s separate […]

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