Get Full Access:
Save 44% Now
Trusted by over 40,000 readers

Israeli Population Increase, 2016

Jan. 6, 2017 Advocates of a two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict often argue that demographics loom as an existential threat to Israel’s continued existence as a democracy and Jewish state.

However, the fertility rate is not a significant concern for Jewish Israel. Per the latest available data from Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), the fertility rate for Israeli Jews and Israeli Arabs was an identical 3.13 children per woman in 2015. This means that Israel has no concerns regarding population growth since 2.1 is the necessary fertility rate for such growth. It also means that Israel has no concerns relative to its Arab population because the Israeli Arab fertility rate is not appreciably greater than the Jewish population’s.

israel-population-growth

Part of the increase in the Israeli Jewish fertility rate can be ascribed to the high birth rates of Israel’s ultra-Orthodox Haredi population, but the impact is generally overstated. According to the CBS, the average fertility rate of Haredi women in Israel was 6.2 children. That said, a Pew Research Center study published in March 2016 estimated that the Haredim make up only 8 percent of Israel’s population. The Haredi fertility rate explains some of the rise in the Israeli Jewish birth rate, but not all of it. Another cause is immigration, which continues to boost Israel’s Jewish population. A total of 15 percent of all Jewish population growth in 2016 came from migration. This is in contrast to a much smaller increase in the Israeli Arab population due to immigration, at only 4 percent.

Predicting demographic changes is extremely difficult and the safest approach to understanding and predicting demographics is to develop a clear grasp of the current situation. To learn why the demographics argument presents a false dichotomy and why there is no threat to a Jewish majority within Israel’s borders, check out our Deep Dive, Demographics and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.

FREE E-Book:

Geopolitics
101

By Jacob Shapiro
Understanding Geopolitics Starts Here.

Get your FREE copy:




    Please leave this field empty.




Please leave this field empty.

We value your thoughts and opinions. If you have a comment on this article, drop us a note in the window above. Your comments will not be published and will only be shared with our team of analysts.



Related Articles

  • Public Confidence in India’s Prime Minister

    Nov. 17, 2017 Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s revolutionary vision for his country’s future bears little resemblance to its present, yet polls suggest that a strong majority of Indian society may have bought into that vision. According to a Pew survey released this week, 88 percent of Indians hold a favorable view of Modi, and 83 percent are satisfied with the state of the economy. Most notably, 70 percent said they were satisfied with the direction their country is moving in. Just 29 percent felt this way in 2013 – the year before Modi took office – which means there has been a seismic shift in public sentiment in India.

    Modi’s vision can be boiled down to three elements: strengthening the central government, strengthening the military and strengthening Indian society. The third element is in many ways the most daunting. India is a vast collection of religions, ethnicities and languages. Modi doesn’t view this diversity as an advantage. He is a Hindu nationalist, and he wants India to be a nation-state with a uniquely Hindu identity.

    Keep reading
  • In China, the Sources of Xi Jinping’s Power

    Nov. 10, 2017 Last month, the Chinese Communist Party held its 19th National Congress in which Chinese President Xi Jinping ushered in a new political era for the country. Xi’s first term was a period of profound transition that laid the groundwork for what was formalized in the congress in October. In the current state of play, Xi and his allies now have control over at least four fundamental sources of power in the Chinese system.

    The first is the Politburo and its Standing Committee, where most Chinese policy is made. Three of the committee’s seven members are now loyal to Xi. (Xi occupies the seventh spot.) Notably, none of the new appointments are younger than 60. Since party secretaries serve five-year terms, and since 68 is the semi-formal retirement age of Chinese politicians, none would be able to serve two terms as Xi’s successor following the next congress in 2022. (Xi was anointed by his predecessor, Hu Jintao, five years out. Hu was picked a full decade before he took power.) In other words, Xi has laid the groundwork for his rule to extend beyond the next five years. As for the Politburo, more than half of its 25 members are considered Xi associates. Xi had already replaced 23 of the party’s 31 provincial party secretaries – some of whom are now Politburo members – even before the congress started. With so many officials beholden to Xi, his orders are that much more likely to be executed.

    Keep reading
  • Spain’s Defining Geographic Feature

    Nov. 3, 2017 Geography affects the development of all nations in profound ways, but rarely has it done so more strikingly than in Spain. Today the country is renowned for its beaches, but its defining geographic feature is its mountains. It is the existence – and more important, the location – of these mountains that has fostered the distinct, regional communities that make Spain so difficult to govern.

    Though mountains are Spain’s most conspicuous geographic feature, they are not the only one to impede government efforts to unify the country. The weather patterns in Spain differ profoundly from region to region. Northwestern Spain gets a great deal of rain each year – sometimes as much as 80 inches a year. Compare that to the Southern Meseta, which sometimes sees as little as 10 inches of rain per year. Central and southern Spain are much dryer, though the Guadalquivir River Valley is a notable exception. Northeastern Spain has comparatively less rainfall too, but Catalonia has the Ebro River (and Valencia the Turia River) for irrigation.

    Keep reading

Geopolitical Futures tells you what matters and what doesn’t.

People say you can’t predict geopolitics.

We have.

Subscribe Now
Learn More About Site Licenses