Global Economic Growth Challenges

Potential growth is forecast to be lower in the coming years.

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Impending Structural Growth Slowdown
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According to the World Bank, global potential GDP growth will decrease by one-third in the coming years compared with 2000-2010, a trend that has been exacerbated by recent events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, logistical obstacles and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. This has compounded long-standing issues such as a declining labor force, low productivity growth and reduced investment. Moreover, the global economy is now hampered by trade distortion from sanctions and ongoing conflicts, which has led to a climate of uncertainty and pessimistic expectations around economic growth. As a result, new investment and international trade expansion could be constrained.

Geopolitical Futures
Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.