Sub-Saharan Africa

Net Assessment of Sub-Saharan Africa

Dec. 2, 2015 While the continent in some ways is still struggling to overcome the effects of its colonial past, some sub-Saharan African countries have produced high growth rates in recent years and may become the sorely needed future leaders for the region.

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The US and France Combat Jihadism in the Sahel

Neither country could tolerate a large jihadist presence on Europe’s doorstep.

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The Predictive Power of Demography

History suggests the conventional wisdom about demographics and national power may be wrong.

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Daily Memo: Global Economic Woes, China’s Veterans, Ukraine’s Conflict

All the news worth knowing today.

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Daily Memo: On the Global Economy, Indo-Pacific Traffic and Russian Aggression

All the news worth knowing today.

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The King of Cobalt

The Democratic Republic of Congo has as much cobalt reserves as the rest of the world combined.

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Batteries Make the World Go Round

The challenges of energy storage are reshaping global competition.

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The Fallout From a Currency Crunch

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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Hope Fades in South Africa

Bailouts aren’t the solution for the problems of state-owned companies.

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The Currency Crisis of 2018?

It’s not too early to consider whether what’s happening in Turkey is simply a Turkish matter.

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On NAFTA, US Engagement in the Middle East, and the China-Japan Competition

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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Daily Memo: Iran’s Political Instability, Eritrea’s Rehabilitation, the Price of Supporting Ukraine

All the news worth knowing today.

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Daily Memo: Russia’s Backyard, Iran’s Cabinet

All the news worth knowing today.

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Global Shipping Is Collateral Damage in the Coming Trade Wars

Yet the industry has proved highly adaptable in past crises.

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A Trade War Heats Up

Checking the pulse of our annual predictions, every two weeks.

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Daily Memo: Underappreciated Threats From Iran, Overlooked Casualties in a Trade War

All the news worth knowing today.

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Ethiopia: A Regional Power in the Making?

The country has grown increasingly assertive in the region.

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Daily Memo: Poland’s Defiance, China’s Finance

All the news worth knowing today.

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Daily Memo: The Most Important Geopolitical Story in the World

All the news worth knowing this weekend.

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Ethiopia’s Role in the South Sudan Peace Deal

The agreement hints at a more assertive role in the region for Ethiopia.

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Daily Memo: Trade Retaliation, Cease-fire Cancellation, EU Adjudication

All the news worth knowing today.

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Ethiopia’s Unrest Invites Global Competition

For countries interested in establishing a foothold in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia could soon be looking for patrons.

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How China Benefits from African Debt

Widespread default could create opportunities for outside powers that covet the region’s natural resources.

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2017 Forecast: Year-end Report Card

Dec. 21, 2017 It’s time to look back on how we fared this year.

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In South Africa, New Leadership Won’t Fix Old Problems

Dec. 20, 2017 Ending government corruption would do nothing to address the country’s legacy of inequality.

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The World in 2018

Dec. 15, 2017 The dysfunction that will characterize the year has a decade’s worth of momentum behind it.

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In Africa, Jihadists See a Chance to Expand

Oct. 13, 2017 Islamist groups like al-Qaida and the Islamic State see this region as a fertile recruiting ground.

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South Africa: A State With Many Nations

Aug. 24, 2017 The country is too bogged down in its own domestic issues to become the regional leader it could be.

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China in Africa: A Different Kind of Military Theater

July 13, 2017 Beijing’s establishing a military base in Djibouti is mostly just for show.

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2017 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2017 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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Why the US Cares About Somalia

May 10, 2017 The country is a test case for Washington’s balance-of-power strategy.

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The Periphery’s Role in Geopolitics

March 29, 2017 We explain how South America and sub-Saharan Africa fit into the GPF model.

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2016 Forecast Year-End Report Card

Dec. 22, 2016 As the year comes to an close, we examine how our forecast for 2016 fared.

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The World in 2017

Dec. 12, 2016 Major countries will see economic downturns due to low oil prices and a declining export market.

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Sub-Saharan Africa Natural Resource Deposits

Nov. 18, 2016 Sub-Sahara Africa’s natural resource deposits are a key feature that tie the region into mainstream geopolitics. Countries in the region have historically depended highly on export of raw materials, which fueled economic growth in industrialized economies.

This strong dependence on the sale of natural resources has also made many Sub-Sahara African countries very susceptible to the exporters’ crisis – both in terms of falling commodity prices and lower demand from major customers like China. Nigeria’s oil and gas sector accounts for about 35 percent of GDP, while hydrocarbons account for about 45 percent of Angola’s GDP. Oil and petrol account for 90-95 percent of exports in both countries. The price of other commodities, including gold, iron ore, platinum and copper, has remained low. Production of these materials figure prominently in the GDPs of South Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Zimbabwe, Zambia and Mozambique.

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Unrest Interrupts Ethiopia’s Economy

Nov. 1, 2016 While recent protests prompt a drop in short-term production, they won’t affect long-term stability.

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The Sources of Unrest in Ethiopia

Sept. 1, 2016 The instability is rooted in internal divisions that the government has failed to address.

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2016 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2016 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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China’s Successors: The Manufacturing Migration

June 15, 2016 New countries are inheriting the role of the once-dominant basic manufacturing powerhouse.

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Net Assessment of Sub-Saharan Africa

Dec. 2, 2015 While the continent in some ways is still struggling to overcome the effects of its colonial past, some sub-Saharan African countries have produced high growth rates in recent years and may become the sorely needed future leaders for the region.

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The World in 2016

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

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The World in 2016: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the year ahead.

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The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

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The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

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