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Sub-Saharan Africa

Net Assessment of Sub-Saharan Africa

Dec. 2, 2015 While the continent in some ways is still struggling to overcome the effects of its colonial past, some sub-Saharan African countries have produced high growth rates in recent years and may become the sorely needed future leaders for the region.

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In Africa, Jihadists See a Chance to Expand

Oct. 13, 2017 Islamist groups like al-Qaida and the Islamic State see this region as a fertile recruiting ground.

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South Africa: A State With Many Nations

Aug. 24, 2017 The country is too bogged down in its own domestic issues to become the regional leader it could be.

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China in Africa: A Different Kind of Military Theater

July 13, 2017 Beijing’s establishing a military base in Djibouti is mostly just for show.

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2017 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2017 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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Why the US Cares About Somalia

May 10, 2017 The country is a test case for Washington’s balance-of-power strategy.

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The Periphery’s Role in Geopolitics

March 29, 2017 We explain how South America and sub-Saharan Africa fit into the GPF model.

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2016 Forecast Year-End Report Card

Dec. 22, 2016 As the year comes to an close, we examine how our forecast for 2016 fared.

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The World in 2017

Dec. 12, 2016 Major countries will see economic downturns due to low oil prices and a declining export market.

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Sub-Saharan Africa Natural Resource Deposits

Nov. 18, 2016 Sub-Sahara Africa’s natural resource deposits are a key feature that tie the region into mainstream geopolitics. Countries in the region have historically depended highly on export of raw materials, which fueled economic growth in industrialized economies.

This strong dependence on the sale of natural resources has also made many Sub-Sahara African countries very susceptible to the exporters’ crisis – both in terms of falling commodity prices and lower demand from major customers like China. Nigeria’s oil and gas sector accounts for about 35 percent of GDP, while hydrocarbons account for about 45 percent of Angola’s GDP. Oil and petrol account for 90-95 percent of exports in both countries. The price of other commodities, including gold, iron ore, platinum and copper, has remained low. Production of these materials figure prominently in the GDPs of South Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Zimbabwe, Zambia and Mozambique.

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Unrest Interrupts Ethiopia’s Economy

Nov. 1, 2016 While recent protests prompt a drop in short-term production, they won’t affect long-term stability.

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The Sources of Unrest in Ethiopia

Sept. 1, 2016 The instability is rooted in internal divisions that the government has failed to address.

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2016 Forecast Mid-Year Report Card

July 7, 2016 Six months into the year, we take a look at how our forecasts have held up so far.

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China’s Successors: The Manufacturing Migration

June 15, 2016 New countries are inheriting the role of the once-dominant basic manufacturing powerhouse.

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Net Assessment of Sub-Saharan Africa

Dec. 2, 2015 While the continent in some ways is still struggling to overcome the effects of its colonial past, some sub-Saharan African countries have produced high growth rates in recent years and may become the sorely needed future leaders for the region.

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The World in 2016

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

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The World in 2016: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look ahead at the major geopolitical developments the world can expect to see in 2016. These include fragmentation in the European Union, as a result of the continuing refugee and financial crises, and a reluctant confrontation between Turkey and the Islamic State.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the year ahead.

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The Road to 2040

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

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The Road to 2040: A Summary of Our Forecast

Dec. 2, 2015 We look into the future and forecast what the world will look like in a quarter of a century. We predict several disruptions in the global structure by 2040 and conclude that much of the instability over the next 25 years will be focused in the European and Asian continents.

Here is a summary of some of our key predictions for the next 25 years.

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