Forecast Tracker: 2019 November Update

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A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t end the trade war. On track Washington’s willingness to settle for a less ambitious trade deal was a major turning point in the trade war. All that’s left now for the two sides is to work out the mechanics on a few thorny issues, including how Beijing will enforce its commitments. This could happen by the end of the year, but the longer it takes to ratify the gains made in negotiations, the higher the risk that political complications will derail it. (Recall that the state of the negotiations now is essentially the same as it was in April, when talks collapsed abruptly.) And even if a “phase one” deal is finalized, the U.S. and China still disagree on the most important issues fueling bilateral tensions, including Beijing’s industrial policies, restrictions on market access to U.S. firms, and its liberal use of subsidies and state-owned enterprises. In other words, there’s nothing in the current deal that would end the mounting “tech cold war.” A decline in living standards will lead to social unrest in Russia. It won’t be enough to effect regime change. On […]

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