Daily Memo
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Daily Memo: US Deployment, Chinese Drills

Military buildup. The Pentagon deployed several A-10 attack aircraft and 300 troops to the...

Germany Weighs Down European Growth

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(click to enlarge) The euro area posted modest economic growth in the last quarter of 2024, with seasonally adjusted gross domestic product rising 0.2 percent...

Europe’s Military Spending Spree Shakes Up Arms Market

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(click to enlarge) Europe has sharply increased defense spending in response to Russian aggression and doubt about U.S. credibility. In 2024, European defense budgets rose...

Russia’s Severe Labor Crunch

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(click to enlarge) The Kremlin needs higher production to meet the needs of the domestic economy, sustain exports and supply the military, but a severe...

Trade Trends in Latin America and the Caribbean

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(click to enlarge) Last year, several countries across Latin America and the Caribbean saw substantial swings in export numbers. Argentina experienced an 18.1 percent increase...

Latest Analysis

How the US Forced Russia’s Failure

On Sunday, The New York Times published an article so long and so significant that it merits unpacking here. Its author, Times investigative reporter...

The Geopolitical Context of the Ukraine Talks

As negotiations continue between Russia and the United States over the conflict in Ukraine,...

Japan’s Slow-Moving Security Independence From the US

Tokyo is reportedly considering the deployment of long-range missiles on Kyushu, the southwesternmost of...
2025 Forecast:
The World Without an Anchor

The international order is about to get less orderly.

The Asian Aspect of the US-Russia Detente

The ongoing diplomacy between the United States and Russia suggests that the conflict in...

US and Russia Find Common Ground in the Middle East

The United States and Russia held their third round of talks on Ukraine in...

Israel’s Minority Alliance Strategy

After the dramatic fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon...

A New Asian Bloc in the Making?

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Senior officials from China, South Korea and Japan will soon meet in Tokyo to...
From the Desk of George Frieman
George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures

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How the US Forced Russia’s Failure

On Sunday, The New York Times published an article so long and so significant that it merits unpacking here. Its author, Times investigative reporter...

The Storm Before the Calm

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Forecasts

The World in 2025

The international order is about to get less orderly.

The Road to 2040

We look into the future and forecast what the world…

The World in 2024

The coming year will revolve around what happens in the U.S., China and Russia – and between Israel and Hamas.

Read our annual or long term forecasts.

Regional Directory

Press Room

US Bargaining With China and Russia

With the arrival of the second Trump administration, great power competition is at an inflection point. Both Russia and China face internal crises that...

American Naval Policy and China

Editor’s note: If it feels as though the world is changing, that’s because it is. Global economic reconfiguration, demographic decline and geopolitical realignment have...

Europe: The Agony and Ecstasy of US Relations

One of the most pressing geopolitical issues Europe faces is its evolving relationship with the United States. This relationship will be critical as Europe...

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All over the world, there are institutions that share our enthusiasm for geopolitics. Sometimes they even share our written work with their readers, so it’s only fair that we return the favor. Enter our Partners page, where we occasionally reprint pieces from these institutions free of charge for our subscribers. The views contained herein are those of the authors and do not represent those of GPF and its staff.

Trending Content

Daily Memo: Black Sea Deal, Visit to Moscow

Limited deal. The United States reached separate agreements with Russia and Ukraine on a ceasefire in the Black Sea, following talks in Riyadh this...

US and Russia Find Common Ground in the Middle East

The United States and Russia held their third round of talks on Ukraine in Riyadh this week, reportedly focused on a ceasefire in the...

We’ve Been Here Before: George Friedman on U.S. Cycles

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Depending on which side of the line you're on, it's possible we're seeing the start of America’s terminal decline, or perhaps its regeneration. While the US has been busily announcing the end of the post-WWII global order abroad, at home, the president seems to be even more rapidly trying to upend the status quo. In this clip of a recent episode of Talking Geopolitics, Geopolitical Futures Chairman George Friedman joined host Christian Smith to discuss what to make of the start of Donald Trump's second term in the wider context of American history and its cycles.

Daily Memo: Israel on a Collision Course with Turkey, Iran

Collision course. Israel and Turkey may be moving closer to direct conflict in Syria. The new Syrian government is negotiating with Turkish President Recep...

Navigating the Twin Crises of the 2020s | George Friedman on Hidden Forces Podcast

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Hidden Forces host Demetri Kofinas speaks with Geopolitical Futures Chairman George Friedman about the pivotal institutional and socioeconomic cycles that shape historical events—and how their convergence is driving the economic and political crises of the 2020s. George and Demetri examine critical turning points in American history, including Andrew Jackson’s abolition of the Second Bank of the United States, the consumer-driven growth wave following FDR’s 1930s reforms, and the neoliberal era sparked by the Reagan Revolution.

Israel’s Minority Alliance Strategy

After the dramatic fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel must understand that it will always be...

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