On the brink. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed his finance minister on Wednesday, a move that could trigger snap elections. With the firing of Christian Lindner, who represents the pro-market Free Democratic Party, the governing coalition led by Scholz’s Social Democrats is on the brink of collapse. Scholz said Germany needed an “effective government that has the strength to make the necessary decisions for our country,” adding that he would call for a confidence vote in January.
First China trip. Myanmar’s junta leader Min Aung Hlaing paid his first visit to China since coming to power in a 2021 coup that exacerbated an armed insurgency that has been searing ever since. On the sidelines of the Greater Mekong Subregion Summit in the southern Chinese city of Kunming, he met on Wednesday with Chinese Premier Li Qiang. Li said China would continue to support Myanmar and deepen strategic cooperation, while Min expressed his gratitude for China’s economic and social assistance and its role in peace and reconciliation efforts.
Talking defense. Iran and Pakistan held security talks during a visit by the Iranian deputy defense minister to Islamabad. A day prior, Pakistan’s chief of army staff met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during an official visit to Riyadh, where they discussed defense cooperation and strengthening bilateral ties.
Russia and Kazakhstan. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Kazakhstan on Thursday. He met with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu. Lavrov said Russia submitted its proposal for constructing Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant. He also indicated that Kazakhstan was officially invited to join the BRICS as a partner country, after Tokayev announced last month that Kazakhstan was turning down a membership offer. Relatedly, the Security Council heads of Russia and Kazakhstan met in Moscow ahead of a summit of the Russian-led Commonwealth of Independent States. They discussed regional security issues, including terrorism and extremism, military-technical cooperation, and prospects for development of the Caspian Sea region.
Trump and Russia. Western banks are discussing the possibility that sanctions against Russia will be lifted after Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, according to a report by the Financial Times. Notably, leading Russian stocks rose in price by almost 4 percent in the hours after the results were announced.
Trump and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the Taliban are hoping for a change of course in U.S.-Afghan relations following Trump’s election. The Afghan Foreign Ministry said in a statement that it hopes the new U.S. administration will adopt a pragmatic approach, noting that the first Trump administration signed the Doha Agreement that ended the 20-year war in Afghanistan.
Bypassing Russia. Kazakhstan reduced its fuel oil exports via Russia by 26 percent in the first nine months of 2024 compared with the same period last year. The supplies have been redirected mainly to the Georgian port of Batumi, which is managed by KazTransOil, via the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.
Global risks. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev highlighted the rising geopolitical risks around the world in a speech at a leaders’ summit of the Organization of Turkic States. He said competition and mistrust between leading states were “sharply intensifying” and that “new hotbeds of confrontation” were emerging. He called on member countries to take a unified position on major issues, including the conflict in the Middle East.
The Geopolitics of the American President