Daily Memo: Cease-Fires and Divisions

Modest progress in Libya and Ukraine won’t necessarily lead to lasting peace.

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Two Libyas? Senior officials from the foreign ministries of Turkey and Russia met from July 21 to July 22 in Ankara to discuss a cease-fire in Libya. They agreed that they should continue to jointly try to resolve the civil war, noting that any military solution could be just as detrimental to Libya in the long term, but they are still on opposing sides of the conflict. This raises the possibility that Libya could be divided into eastern and western regions governed by the Libyan National Army (supported by Russia) and the Government of National Accord (supported by Turkey), respectively. Even if Libya agreed to a hypothetical division, other countries would object, most notably Germany, whose defense minister said it would be bad for Europe. Another cease-fire in Ukraine. Negotiators from Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe reached a cease-fire agreement Wednesday — a precondition for Normandy Format talks with Germany, Russia, France and Ukraine later this year. But some obstacles remain. Even if militants in the east honor the agreement, Kyiv refuses to designate a special status for the Donbas region, Donetsk and Luhansk, vowing to advance its control of the Russian-Ukrainian border before […]

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