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Europe? What’s That?

Europe has become a lightning rod in the United States lately, particularly with regard to the U.S.’ desire to stop guaranteeing European security. It’s...

How Wars End

Wars – which I will define broadly as matters of military conflict sustained partly by the nature of the soldiers fighting and partly by...

The Trump-Putin Negotiations

I normally avoid personalizing geopolitical events, since I regard nations, not leaders, to be the agents of history. But there are moments when the...

How the US Forced Russia’s Failure

On Sunday, The New York Times published an article so long and so significant that it merits unpacking here. Its author, Times investigative reporter...

Engineering an End to the Ukraine War

When the United States entered talks with North Vietnam near the end of the Vietnam War, it hadn’t been militarily defeated, but it had...

A Personal Explanation of Why I Don’t Vote

I must confess that I have not voted in an election, other than local ones, since I left my life in academia and government...

Israel’s Intelligence Failure

Hamas' attack on Oct. 7, 2023, was not Israel’s first intelligence failure. In the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, Israel was surprised by Egypt and Syria's...

Morality in Geopolitics

The negotiations over a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine war bring to light an uncomfortable truth: In geopolitics, ethics tend to be coincidental, not...

Speculating on the Summit in Saudi Arabia

At its heart, Geopolitical Futures is a forecasting company. But before we forecast, we analyze. And before we analyze, we speculate. We rarely publish...

Russia-US Negotiations Open the Next Phase Of Restructuring the World

From 1945 until the early 1990s, the global order was based on the hostility between the United States and the Soviet Union. It was...

America’s Sixth Socio-Economic Cycle

In my books ā€œThe Next 100 Yearsā€ and ā€œThe Storm Before the Calm,ā€ I introduced a model of U.S. history consisting of political cycles...

American Naval Policy and China

Editor’s note: If it feels as though the world is changing, that’s because it is. Global economic reconfiguration, demographic decline and geopolitical realignment have...

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