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A Shift in Ukrainian Strategy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced over the weekend that he replaced his defense minister with someone new – unsurprising, given the exhaustion the minister...

Prigozhin RIP, Or Do the Best You Can

Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is dead. He died of a fatal dose of self-confidence. He made three mistakes. First, he thought himself a...

Next Stage of Forecasting

As we at GPF undertake our next long-term forecast, we’d like to do so with a degree of transparency. A degree is all we...

Belarus Reaches Out to Poland and the EU

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko made a speech last week in which he appeared to be reaching out to the West. Belarus has been a...

The State of the War in Ukraine

A month and a half ago, right after the attempted Wagner coup, there appeared to be chaos in Moscow, with the future of President...

Five Eyes in Our Time

A few years ago, I was invited to a military meeting in Australia. When I walked into the room, I expected to see Australian...

Is Someone Out There?

Democrat Sen. Chuck Schumer and Republican Sen. Mike Rounds are filing legislation demanding that the federal government reveal the files on what it knows...

Why the US Is Threatening to Send Cluster Bombs to Ukraine

U.S. President Joe Biden announced last week that Washington will give Ukraine cluster bombs, adding with apparent emotion that the decision was enormously difficult...

Where Does Russia Stand Now?

There has been a great deal of talk that the Wagner Group's attempted insurrection over the weekend may have weakened Russian President Vladimir Putin....

Forecasts From ‘The Next 100 Years’: Al-Qaida and China

“The Next 100 Years” is the first book I wrote that was intended to be a serious forecasting book. Others followed, but this perfected...

Starting the New Forecast

It is time to reconsider the past and assess a forecast for the future. The forecasts we make concern the geopolitical system. They are...

A Convocation of Spies

Over the past weekend, major global media outlets revealed that the heads of intelligence of about two dozen countries held a (formerly) secret meeting...

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