Turkey’s invasion of Afrin in northern Syria has really shaken up the established lines of battle. First, Turkey proposed cooperation with the United States in Afrin and Manbij, both of which are held by Syrian Kurds – whom the U.S. has been supporting and the Turks consider hostile. Though no formal agreement has been reached, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis said the U.S. would work with Turkey to coordinate their actions in Syria. Then, the Syrian Kurds apparently invited pro-regime forces into Afrin to help fight back against the Turkish assault.
The Red Sea is an immensely valuable region strategically. It has been an active trade zone since the time of the ancient Egyptians, and today some 20 percent of global trade by volume passes through it. It is also a volatile region – in great part because of its value.
Domestic problems are affecting German and U.S. behavior in eerily similar ways. In both countries, a widening gap in wealth inequality is creating the conditions for potentially radical political change. This trend is creating serious political problems: In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel is cobbling together a coalition after German voters turned outside the mainstream to voice their frustration with the status quo. In the U.S., the government is squabbling with itself rather than efficiently solving problems, whether at home or abroad.
Violence in Mexico is on the rise, particularly homicides, kidnappings and extortion by drug trafficking organizations and other organized crime groups. This trend raises the issue of the potential for spillover into the United States. A significant increase in spillover violence would likely lead to a redefinition of the bilateral relationship. While other places in the world have higher rates of violence than Mexico, greater scrutiny is placed on Mexico because of its proximity to the U.S. and the impact violence may have on Mexico’s emergence as an economic power.
The U.S. has promised to get tougher on China for almost a year now. On the campaign trail, presidential candidate Donald Trump promised that, under his administration, China would not be allowed to take advantage of the U.S. through its trade practices. The tough talk ended once Washington realized it needed China’s help resolving the North Korea crisis. And now that that appears to have hit a dead end, Trump may soon make good on the threats he issued during the presidential campaign.
On Dec. 28, Iran’s second-most populous city, Mashhad, situated in the northeast near the border with Turkmenistan, was the site of protests that would soon expand to dozens of towns, villages and urban centers throughout the country. On the first day, three cities held demonstrations. (Some reports say it was five.) On the second day, an additional nine cities saw protests. By the sixth day, they had spread to all corners of the country.
The debate over Brexit has been filled with apocalyptic predictions about its potential economic implications for the United Kingdom. But among the major flaws in these predictions is the fact that they focus on the U.K. as a whole. The United Kingdom, however, is made up of four distinct countries: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. All four will be affected by Brexit in different ways, partly because they have different levels of exposure to EU trade.
Dec. 29, 2017 Yemen has always been different from the rest of the countries of the Arabian Peninsula. Even the Ancient Greeks thought of it as such, referring to the land that would eventually constitute Yemen as Eudaimon Arabia – “Fortunate Arabia” or “Happy Arabia” – because its rainfall and fertile land made for a stable population.
Cyril Ramaphosa’s election as president of the African National Congress party ushered in a period of hope that South Africa’s fate is about to change. Presidential elections will not occur until 2019, but it’s extremely likely that Ramaphosa, as the new leader of the ANC, will win. A major factor in the optimism about South Africa’s future under a Ramaphosa presidency is that he is independently wealthy. The thinking is that this would make him less subject to temptation and therefore less prone to the self-aggrandizement in which his predecessor partook. But for South Africa to reach its potential, it’s not as simple as changing the man at the top and, theoretically, eliminating government corruption.
Dec. 15, 2017 Turkey’s savings rate, which has been decreasing steadily since 1990, is among the lowest in the world. Meanwhile, Turkey’s external debt has been rising over the past five years, which could ultimately diminish the government’s control over its economy. Since most of Turkey’s external debt – about 70 percent – is held in the private sector, banks are struggling to attract sufficient deposits to meet the investment demands of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s economic stimulus. They therefore have had to turn to foreign borrowing to provide those funds.
Dec. 8, 2017 Over the past year, the U.S. Navy has been under scrutiny because of a series of collisions involving Navy warships from the Pacific Fleet. In May, the USS Lake Champlain guided-missile cruiser collided with a fishing boat in the Sea of Japan. A month later, the USS Fitzgerald destroyer collided with a cargo ship off the coast of Japan. Then in August, another destroyer, the USS John S. McCain, was hit by an oil tanker east of the Strait of Malacca. The latter two collisions resulted in the deaths of 17 American sailors. The Navy concluded that human error was the cause of both of those collisions.
The Geopolitics of the American President