Weekly Graphic

The European Union is struggling to find its way, Russia is in a state of flux, and Turkey is getting dragged deeper into the Syrian conflict. These are developments that indirectly shape the global order because of the size and power of the countries involved. But there is one part of the world that does not have the luxury of being shaped indirectly: the Balkans. This mountainous region’s unique geography has consigned it to a troubled place in history, as much because of the ambitions and machinations of outside powers as because of its own fractiousness.

Since 2015, tensions between two important Eastern European countries, Poland and Ukraine, appear to have been rising. The rift stems from the countries’ different interpretations of their shared history.

Chancellor Angela Merkel did not emerge from German federal elections unscathed, but she emerged nonetheless. Now that she has, she must throw the full weight of her limited powers into halting the EU’s slow decline into irrelevance.

Mexico City, the seat of Mexico’s government, has a very basic problem: It has a lot of territory to govern and many physical obstacles between itself and much of that territory.

Iran’s activities in Syria get a lot of press, but less attention is paid to what Iran has done in Iraq to make those activities manageable. Iran operates a Shiite foreign legion that over the years has trained 200,000 fighters in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. One part of that foreign legion is the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq. The militias of the PMF all but control northern Iraq, which Iran has transformed into a land bridge to supply its other proxy groups in Syria and Lebanon.

Since its formation in 2014, the Luhansk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine has been plagued by infighting, occasional violence and even allegations of an attempted coup. Not much is likely to change in the immediate future.

Turkey’s invasion of Afrin in northern Syria has really shaken up the established lines of battle. First, Turkey proposed cooperation with the United States in Afrin and Manbij, both of which are held by Syrian Kurds – whom the U.S. has been supporting and the Turks consider hostile. Though no formal agreement has been reached, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis said the U.S. would work with Turkey to coordinate their actions in Syria. Then, the Syrian Kurds apparently invited pro-regime forces into Afrin to help fight back against the Turkish assault.

Turkey needs to establish a buffer on its Mediterranean shores.

The Red Sea is an immensely valuable region strategically. It has been an active trade zone since the time of the ancient Egyptians, and today some 20 percent of global trade by volume passes through it. It is also a volatile region – in great part because of its value.

Domestic problems are affecting German and U.S. behavior in eerily similar ways. In both countries, a widening gap in wealth inequality is creating the conditions for potentially radical political change. This trend is creating serious political problems: In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel is cobbling together a coalition after German voters turned outside the mainstream to voice their frustration with the status quo. In the U.S., the government is squabbling with itself rather than efficiently solving problems, whether at home or abroad.

Violence in Mexico is on the rise, particularly homicides, kidnappings and extortion by drug trafficking organizations and other organized crime groups. This trend raises the issue of the potential for spillover into the United States. A significant increase in spillover violence would likely lead to a redefinition of the bilateral relationship. While other places in the world have higher rates of violence than Mexico, greater scrutiny is placed on Mexico because of its proximity to the U.S. and the impact violence may have on Mexico’s emergence as an economic power.

The U.S. has promised to get tougher on China for almost a year now. On the campaign trail, presidential candidate Donald Trump promised that, under his administration, China would not be allowed to take advantage of the U.S. through its trade practices. The tough talk ended once Washington realized it needed China’s help resolving the North Korea crisis. And now that that appears to have hit a dead end, Trump may soon make good on the threats he issued during the presidential campaign.