HomeWeekly Graphic

Weekly Graphic

In Iran, Protests Are Nothing New

On Dec. 28, Iranā€™s second-most populous city, Mashhad, situated in the northeast near the border with Turkmenistan, was the site of protests that would soon expand to dozens of towns, villages and urban centers throughout the country. On the first day, three cities held demonstrations. (Some reports say it was five.) On the second day, an additional nine cities saw protests. By the sixth day, they had spread to all corners of the country.

How Much Does the UK Really Depend on EU Trade?

The debate over Brexit has been filled with apocalyptic predictions about its potential economic implications for the United Kingdom. But among the major flaws in these predictions is the fact that they focus on the U.K. as a whole. The United Kingdom, however, is made up of four distinct countries: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. All four will be affected by Brexit in different ways, partly because they have different levels of exposure to EU trade.

In Yemen, Historical Roots of a Modern Civil War

Dec. 29, 2017Ā Yemen has always been different from the rest of the countries of the Arabian Peninsula. Even the Ancient Greeks thought of it as such, referring to the land that would eventually constitute Yemen as Eudaimon Arabia ā€“ ā€œFortunate Arabiaā€ or ā€œHappy Arabiaā€ ā€“ because its rainfall and fertile land made for a stable population.

Inequality Holds Back South Africa

Cyril Ramaphosaā€™s election as president of the African National Congress party ushered in a period of hope that South Africaā€™s fate is about to change. Presidential elections will not occur until 2019, but itā€™s extremely likely that Ramaphosa, as the new leader of the ANC, will win. A major factor in the optimism about South Africaā€™s future under a Ramaphosa presidency is that he is independently wealthy. The thinking is that this would make him less subject to temptation and therefore less prone to the self-aggrandizement in which his predecessor partook. But for South Africa to reach its potential, itā€™s not as simple as changing the man at the top and, theoretically, eliminating government corruption.

Turkey’s National Savings Rate

Dec. 15, 2017Ā Turkeyā€™s savings rate, which has been decreasing steadily since 1990, is among the lowest in the world. Meanwhile, Turkeyā€™s external debt has been rising over the past five years, which could ultimately diminish the governmentā€™s control over its economy. Since most of Turkeyā€™s external debt ā€“ about 70 percent ā€“ is held in the private sector, banks are struggling to attract sufficient deposits to meet the investment demands of President Recep Tayyip Erdoganā€™s economic stimulus. They therefore have had to turn to foreign borrowing to provide those funds.

US Navy Collisions in the Western Pacific

Dec. 8, 2017 Over the past year, the U.S. Navy has been under scrutiny because of a series of collisions involving Navy warships from the Pacific Fleet. In May, the USS Lake Champlain guided-missile cruiser collided with a fishing boat in the Sea of Japan. A month later, the USS Fitzgerald destroyer collided with a cargo ship off the coast of Japan. Then in August, another destroyer, the USS John S. McCain, was hit by an oil tanker east of the Strait of Malacca. The latter two collisions resulted in the deaths of 17 American sailors. The Navy concluded that human error was the cause of both of those collisions.

What Tax Trends Tell Us About the Russian Economy

Dec. 1, 2017 Russia boasts both a consolidated budget and a federal budget. The consolidated budget is a combination of the federal budget, which is controlled by Moscow, and Russiaā€™s regional budgets. The federal budget, which is only one part of the consolidated budget, is developed, approved and spent by the central government.

German Intelligence Failures Ahead of Stalingrad

Nov. 24, 2017Ā The Battle of Stalingrad had its origins in a pivotal German miscalculation at the start of the war. Operation Barbarossa, the code name for Germanyā€™s invasion of the east, was designed to destroy the Soviet Union, securing Germanyā€™s eastern flank and thereby guaranteeing German control of continental Europe. The invasion began on June 22, 1941.

Public Confidence in Indiaā€™s Prime Minister

Nov. 17, 2017Ā Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modiā€™s revolutionary vision for his countryā€™s future bears little resemblance to its present, yet polls suggest that a strong majority of Indian society may have bought into that vision. According to a Pew survey released this week, 88 percent of Indians hold a favorable view of Modi, and 83 percent are satisfied with the state of the economy. Most notably, 70 percent said they were satisfied with the direction their country is moving in. Just 29 percent felt this way in 2013 ā€“ the year before Modi took office ā€“ which means there has been a seismic shift in public sentiment in India.

Modiā€™s vision can be boiled down to three elements: strengthening the central government, strengthening the military and strengthening Indian society. The third element is in many ways the most daunting. India is a vast collection of religions, ethnicities and languages. Modi doesnā€™t view this diversity as an advantage. He is a Hindu nationalist, and he wants India to be a nation-state with a uniquely Hindu identity.

In China, the Sources of Xi Jinping’s Power

Nov. 10, 2017Ā Last month, the Chinese Communist Party held itsĀ 19th National Congress in which Chinese PresidentĀ Xi Jinping ushered in a new political eraĀ for the country. Xi’s first term was a period of profound transition that laid the groundwork for what was formalized in the congress in October. In the current state of play, Xi and his allies now have control over at least four fundamental sources of power in the Chinese system.

The first is the Politburo and its Standing Committee, where most Chinese policy is made. Three of the committeeā€™s seven members are now loyal to Xi. (Xi occupies the seventh spot.) Notably, none of the new appointments are younger than 60. Since party secretaries serve five-year terms, and since 68 is the semi-formal retirement age of Chinese politicians, none would be able to serve two terms as Xiā€™s successor following the next congress in 2022. (Xi was anointed by his predecessor, Hu Jintao, five years out. Hu was picked a full decade before he took power.) In other words, Xi has laid the groundwork for his rule to extend beyond the next five years. As for the Politburo, more than half of its 25 members are considered Xi associates. Xi had already replaced 23 of the partyā€™s 31 provincial party secretaries ā€“ some of whom are now Politburo members ā€“ even before the congress started. With so many officials beholden to Xi, his orders are that much more likely to be executed.

Spain’s Defining Geographic Feature

Nov. 3, 2017Ā Geography affects the development of all nations in profound ways, but rarely has it done so more strikingly than in Spain. Today the country is renowned for its beaches, but its defining geographic feature is its mountains. It is the existence ā€“ and more important, the location ā€“ of these mountains that has fostered the distinct, regional communities that make Spain so difficult to govern.

Though mountains are Spainā€™s most conspicuous geographic feature, they are not the only one to impede government efforts to unify the country. The weather patterns in Spain differ profoundly from region to region. Northwestern Spain gets a great deal of rain each year ā€“ sometimes as much as 80 inches a year. Compare that to the Southern Meseta, which sometimes sees as little as 10 inches of rain per year. Central and southern Spain are much dryer, though the Guadalquivir River Valley is a notable exception. Northeastern Spain has comparatively less rainfall too, but Catalonia has the Ebro River (and Valencia the Turia River) for irrigation.

The North Caucasus: Russia’s Southern Buffer

Oct. 28, 2017Ā The North Caucasus stretches from the Caspian Sea in the southeast to the Sea of Azov in the northwest. The westernmost part of the area, composed of Krasnodar region and the enclave of Adygea, lies within the Southern district. Krasnodar consists mainly of flat lands, which allowed Russia to more easily slavicize the territory after the forced exodus of its Circassian inhabitants in the late 19th century.

The rest of the North Caucasus region ā€“ the North Caucasian district ā€“ has maintained its distinct Muslim identity and hence was configured into a single federal district. This district runs from Krasnodar to the Caspian Sea and consists of the republics of Karachay-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Chechnya and Dagestan. The region of Stavropol ā€“ sandwiched between Krasnodar in the west and Dagestan in the east, and sharing borders with each of the other republics in the south ā€“ and North Ossetia are the only majority ethnic Russian and Orthodox Christian units within the North Caucasian district.

Latest Posts

Get Geopolitical Futures FREE newsletter

Understanding Our Geopolitical Model

Sign up now and receive our special report Understanding our Geopolitical Model

Get weekly analysis from New York Times bestselling author George Friedman and our global team of analysts, plus special offers.

Subscribe Now


The Geopolitics of the American President

FREE with an annual subscription to Geopolitical Futures.

Subscribe Now