Daily Memo: Belarus Buys Oil, South Korea in the Middle East,...

Minsk has secured a shipment from Norway while Turkey tests waters outside Somalia.

The Kenya Attack and Soleimani’s Killing

The timing, target, execution and history of economic ties mean we should consider whether the two events are linked.

Geopolitical Futures’ Forecast for 2020

Introduction A year is an arbitrary moment. It is short, its length determined by a planet’s rotation around a sun. It is merely a moment in a longer and more complex tale in which figures who tower for a time pass by unnoticed, when the triumphs and tragedies that rivet us all fade away, all […]

Daily Memo: Fallout in Iran, the Future of the JCPOA

The Middle East is still reeling from the killing of Qassem Soleimani.

Forecast Tracker: 2019 Year-End Review

(click to enlarge) Scale: Hit, Partial Hit, Inconclusive, Partial Miss, Miss A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t end the trade war. Hit China and the U.S. were seemingly inches from a deal for nearly the entire year, but they repeatedly struggled to push negotiations across […]

Daily Memo: Rising Global Debt, Lebanon’s New Prime Minister, Britain’s Foreign...

A World Bank study shows staggering levels of global debt, and the Lebanese president appoints a new prime minister.

Forecast Tracker: 2019 November Update

A Cycle Ends The U.S. and China will reach a deal on trade, but it won’t end the trade war. On track Washington’s willingness to settle for a less ambitious trade deal was a major turning point in the trade war. All that’s left now for the two sides is to work out the mechanics […]

Can Ethiopia Defy Its Own History?

When the country tries to function as a federation, it tends to suppress its people.

Forecast Tracker: 2019 Second Quarter Update

The trade war roller coaster, the economy's other shoe, the offensive against Iran.