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Sub-Saharan Africa

A New Jihadist Hub in Africa

Nigeria and Mali are at the center of what is fast becoming the world’s most active theater of jihadism. Militant groups are exploiting the...

On the Global Gen Z Protests

Over the past few months, a wave of protests led by members of Generation Z has swept over the world. They have largely taken...

Guinea Shakes Up Global Iron Ore Market

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(click to enlarge) After three decades, Guinea has officially inaugurated the Simandou mine, with the first shipment of iron ore expected to depart for China...

The UAE’s Quiet Militarization of the Red Sea

The Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group that comprises one side of the civil war in Sudan, recently took el-Fasher, the last important stronghold...

Why the Conflict in the Congo Can’t Stop

This week, the United States hosted a third round of talks to broker peace between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and M23, a...

China’s Green Push for the Global South

As the world transitions from hydrocarbons to renewables, Washington and Beijing are pursuing diverging paths that will have important implications for global leadership and...

How Drone Logistics Are Changing Warfare

Warfare is the contest between technology and geography. Geography imposes limits (e.g., distance, rivers, mountains, chokepoints) and technology tries to erode them, relying on...

Risk and Reward in the AI Arms Race

Artificial intelligence is emerging as the strategic high ground in warfare, promising faster targeting, smarter weapons and operations beyond human capacity. Several imperatives are...

Graphic Essay: Why Sudan’s Civil War Is Hard to Stop

Sudan's civil war has raged since April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the de facto government, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF),...

India’s Ambitions in Africa

Over the past decade there has been a marked increase in the competition for influence in Africa. China is already well established there, but...

The Sahel’s Triangle of Insecurity

U.S. Africa Command chief Gen. Michael Langley issued a stark warning in late May while addressing African defense chiefs in Nairobi. He said the...

There Is No White Genocide in South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa met with U.S. President Donald Trump in May, hoping to reset relations and secure new trade and investment opportunities....

America’s New Threat Assessment

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(click to enlarge) The 2025 Annual Threat Assessment from the U.S. Intelligence Community presents a detailed overview of a rapidly evolving threat landscape defined by...

New Battlegrounds in Information Warfare

The concept of disinformation isn’t new; it’s been around as long as information has. The difference between then and now is that now there...

The EU Changes Course in Africa

Since the end of the colonial era, Europe has spent much of its time in Africa on promoting shared values and development – often...

As Trade Changes, So Does US Defense

Reports from around the world suggest U.S. military policy is at odds with itself. On the one hand, the United States has pledged to...

Latest Posts

European colonization of Africa disrupted the development of nation-states and imposed artificial borders that set the stage for recurring conflict.

These modern nation-states are therefore very young and institutionally immature.

Sub-Sahara Africa typically serves as a secondary theater for tensions between stronger powers.

South Africa has the potential to be a regional power despite its economic difficulties. Two other candidates are Nigeria and Ethiopia.

Read Regional Assessment

Required Reads: Sub-Saharan Africa

From our Forecast...

European and U.S. efforts to draw down their respective military presences in Africa will be slowed due to the risk of losing economic opportunity and political influence to competitors like Russia, Turkey or China.

Sub-Saharan Africa in our Memos

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Latest Posts

George Answers Your Questions: On the New US National Security Strategy

The National Security Strategy of the United States of America Dec. 9, 2025 Question: In the 2025 National Security Strategy document, Russia’s relevance is marginal, and...

AI’s Built-In Vulnerabilities

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(click to enlarge) The hype surrounding artificial intelligence tends to elide some if its drawbacks – namely, that it consumes vasts amounts of energy, and...

The Japan-China Dispute, Explained

Over the past month, the diplomatic conflict that began as a war of words between China and Japan has gradually intensified, leading to maritime...

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