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Sub-Saharan Africa

As Trade Changes, So Does US Defense

Reports from around the world suggest U.S. military policy is at odds with itself. On the one hand, the United States has pledged to...

Turkey’s Neo-Ottoman Agenda in Africa

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants his country to reclaim its status as a regional power. Embodying an ideology often referred to as neo-Ottomanism,...

The World in 2025

Editor's note: Below are the compiled links to our entire 2025 annual forecast. Please follow the links for quick navigation, or download the PDF...

Rwanda’s Role in DRC Conflict

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(click to enlarge) The conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo escalated last weekend when the M23 rebel group advanced into North Kivu, seizing...

2025 Forecast: A World Without an Anchor

Throughout history, world order has been shaped by great powers. In the competition with them – and sometimes among them – lesser powers would...

Game Over for France in Africa

“I think someone forgot to say thank you.” This loaded statement, made by French President Emmanuel Macron at the 30th annual Ambassadors' Conference in Paris,...

Russia’s Presence in Africa After Assad’s Fall in Syria

Bashar Assad’s ouster in Syria will likely have far-reaching consequences for close ally Russia, extending even into its operations in Africa. For decades, Syria...

Egypt and Ethiopia’s Dispute Is Getting Worse

Egypt has been displeased with Ethiopia’s plan to dam the Blue Nile River since the project was announced more than a decade ago. Egypt’s...

Daily Memo: Georgian Elections, British Military Reforms

Results are in. Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili vowed not to recognize the results of parliamentary elections held over the weekend that saw the governing...

BRICS Runs Into a Wall

For leaders such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the annual BRICS summit is an excellent opportunity to present a vision of a world...

Graphic Essay: Emerging Technologies

From the wheel to the internal combustion engine, new technologies have, for better or worse, fundamentally transformed our society. The emerging technologies listed have...

In Africa, China Strikes Back

A little over a year ago, China was consigned to spend less in pursuit of its interests in Africa. It cut back dramatically on...

Graphic Essay: The Fight Against Global Hunger

Last year, approximately 30 percent of the world’s population experienced moderate to severe food insecurity. This means some 2.3 billion people “compromised on the...

Sudan’s Forever War

As Sudan’s civil war enters its 15th month, peace seems as distant as ever. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces...

Graphic Essay: Global Chokepoints in Maritime Trade

Editor’s note: The following is the first of what we hope will be many Monthly Graphics, a visual-rich, subscriber-only essay that complements our long-form...

The Destabilization of Somalia

Somalia’s security situation has deteriorated considerably throughout 2024, as U.S. officials report that two years of gains against the al-Shabab extremist group have been...

Latest Posts

European colonization of Africa disrupted the development of nation-states and imposed artificial borders that set the stage for recurring conflict.

These modern nation-states are therefore very young and institutionally immature.

Sub-Sahara Africa typically serves as a secondary theater for tensions between stronger powers.

South Africa has the potential to be a regional power despite its economic difficulties. Two other candidates are Nigeria and Ethiopia.

Read Regional Assessment

From our Forecast...

European and U.S. efforts to draw down their respective military presences in Africa will be slowed due to the risk of losing economic opportunity and political influence to competitors like Russia, Turkey or China.

Sub-Saharan Africa in our Memos

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Global Energy Trends

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(click to enlarge) The International Energy Agency released its Global Energy Review last month, revealing notable changes in demand and supplies. In 2024, global demand...

Daily Memo: Lavrov-Rubio Call, US Withdrawal From Syria

U.S.-Russia communications. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke by phone on Thursday about the results of a...

As Trade Changes, So Does US Defense

Reports from around the world suggest U.S. military policy is at odds with itself. On the one hand, the United States has pledged to...

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