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Sub-Saharan Africa

2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World

Global In 2025, we noted that the world was becoming more unanchored compared to years past. Since World War II, the global order had had...

Competition in the Horn of Africa Heats Up

On Dec. 26, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that his country would officially recognize Somaliland, the breakaway region of Somalia, as a sovereign...

Israel Recognizes Somaliland’s Independence

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(click to enlarge) More than three decades after Somaliland claimed independence from Somalia, Israel became the first country to recognize its separation. It was a...

The Military Benefits of Quantum Technology

Modern militaries increasingly depend on the continuous functioning of complex systems rather than on decisive battlefield victories. Military advantages, then, are created less by...

A New Jihadist Hub in Africa

Nigeria and Mali are at the center of what is fast becoming the world’s most active theater of jihadism. Militant groups are exploiting the...

On the Global Gen Z Protests

Over the past few months, a wave of protests led by members of Generation Z has swept over the world. They have largely taken...

Guinea Shakes Up Global Iron Ore Market

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(click to enlarge) After three decades, Guinea has officially inaugurated the Simandou mine, with the first shipment of iron ore expected to depart for China...

The UAE’s Quiet Militarization of the Red Sea

The Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group that comprises one side of the civil war in Sudan, recently took el-Fasher, the last important stronghold...

Why the Conflict in the Congo Can’t Stop

This week, the United States hosted a third round of talks to broker peace between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and M23, a...

China’s Green Push for the Global South

As the world transitions from hydrocarbons to renewables, Washington and Beijing are pursuing diverging paths that will have important implications for global leadership and...

How Drone Logistics Are Changing Warfare

Warfare is the contest between technology and geography. Geography imposes limits (e.g., distance, rivers, mountains, chokepoints) and technology tries to erode them, relying on...

Risk and Reward in the AI Arms Race

Artificial intelligence is emerging as the strategic high ground in warfare, promising faster targeting, smarter weapons and operations beyond human capacity. Several imperatives are...

Graphic Essay: Why Sudan’s Civil War Is Hard to Stop

Sudan's civil war has raged since April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), the de facto government, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF),...

India’s Ambitions in Africa

Over the past decade there has been a marked increase in the competition for influence in Africa. China is already well established there, but...

The Sahel’s Triangle of Insecurity

U.S. Africa Command chief Gen. Michael Langley issued a stark warning in late May while addressing African defense chiefs in Nairobi. He said the...

There Is No White Genocide in South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa met with U.S. President Donald Trump in May, hoping to reset relations and secure new trade and investment opportunities....

Latest Posts

European colonization of Africa disrupted the development of nation-states and imposed artificial borders that set the stage for recurring conflict.

These modern nation-states are therefore very young and institutionally immature.

Sub-Sahara Africa typically serves as a secondary theater for tensions between stronger powers.

South Africa has the potential to be a regional power despite its economic difficulties. Two other candidates are Nigeria and Ethiopia.

Read Regional Assessment

Required Reads: Sub-Saharan Africa

From our Forecast...

European and U.S. efforts to draw down their respective military presences in Africa will be slowed due to the risk of losing economic opportunity and political influence to competitors like Russia, Turkey or China.

Sub-Saharan Africa in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Confession: I Can’t Figure Out Trump’s Latest Move

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The task I have dedicated my career to is understanding the things that nations must do and what they must not do. I see...

George Answers Your Questions: Trump and Greenland

Why Greenland Matters Jan. 12, 2026 Question: I have followed you from when you set up what is now RANE and then GPF. There has been...

How Demographics Complicate Iran’s Situation

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(click to enlarge) In Iran, a prolonged period of high inflation has combined with a collapse in the value of the rial to produce mass...

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