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January 17, 2024

Strikes and demonstrations are nothing new for Europe, but two factors distinguish the latest bout: its transnational nature and its concentration in specific economic sectors. Farmers are or were recently protesting in Bulgaria, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and Romania, while rail and other public transit employees have gone on strike in Bulgaria, Germany, Poland […]

Daily Memo: Iran Strikes Target in Iraq, North Korea Rejects Reunification

January 16, 2024

Middle East escalation. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it launched an airstrike on an Israeli “espionage center” in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Tehran said...

AUKUS in 2024

January 16, 2024

The trilateral security partnership comprising the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia – known simply as AUKUS – is among the most interesting...

Daily Memo: Taiwan Holds Elections, Manila Reveals Plans for the South China Sea

January 15, 2024

Historic vote. Taiwan held presidential and legislative elections on Saturday. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party, led by Vice President Lai Ching-te, won a historic...

2024 Annual Forecast: Russia

January 15, 2024

After the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia was in a state of crisis. Its economy slowly recovered thanks in part to an influx of technologies...

Daily Memo: Strikes Against the Houthis, More UK Aid for Ukraine

January 12, 2024

Retaliation. The United States and the United Kingdom launched strikes against targets linked to the Houthi rebels in Yemen in response to the group’s...

Europe Comes to Boil: the Balkans, Hungary and Russia

January 12, 2024

A few months ago, when Gaza joined Ukraine as a theater of intense war, I wrote about another potential conflict emerging in the Balkans....

Daily Memo: Declining Revenue for Russian Oil and Gas

January 11, 2024

Russia's energy sector. Russia’s Finance Ministry reported that revenue from oil and gas sales totaled 8.8 trillion rubles ($98 billion) in 2023, a 23.9...

2024 Annual Forecast: India’s Transformation

January 11, 2024

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...