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The Coming War Between Israel and Hezbollah

Ever since the inconclusive 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, a rematch – and clear Israeli victory – has seemed inevitable. That conflict is now at hand. Storm clouds were gathering even before Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, when Israel began building a wall around the Lebanese part of Ghajar village to prevent Lebanese from entering it. Israel had […]

Daily Memo: Riyadh Slashes Oil Prices, German Farmers Protest

Oil price cuts. Saudi Arabia will lower oil prices for consumers in all regions for February amid weak global demand. While consumption typically dips...

2024 Annual Forecast: China’s Modern Dynasty

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

The Strategies of the Israel-Hamas War

It is difficult to understand the strategy of a country at war sitting outside the command center. However, when analyzed from the initiation of...

Daily Memo: Another Houthi Attack, the Future of Gaza

Tensions in the Red Sea. The Yemen-based Houthi rebels launched another attack on commercial shipping lanes in the Red Sea on Thursday. The group...

The US Re-Engages With Africa

After three decades of treating the African continent mostly as an afterthought, the U.S. is adjusting its strategy to curb the growing influence of...

Daily Memo: Houthis on Notice, Russia and Ukraine Agree to Prisoner Swap

Western warning. The United States and its allies issued a warning on Wednesday to Yemen’s Houthi rebels over their continued attacks on shipping vessels...

The Limits of Iran’s Geopolitical Expansion

After China and Russia, Iran is the biggest foreign policy challenge for the United States, one that has bedeviled successive administrations for nearly half...

Daily Memo: Hamas Leadership, Sweden’s Economy

Escalation. Hamas’ deputy leader, Saleh al-Arouri, was reportedly killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Tuesday. Six other Hamas members were also apparently...

What Red Sea Disruption Means for Global Supply Chains

The Red Sea is a vital waterway for commercial shipping that connects markets in Europe, Asia and Africa. In recent weeks, however, it has...

Daily Memo: New Year’s Greetings from Xi Jinping

Friend to all. In a series of New Year’s greetings sent to foreign leaders, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared Beijing’s intention to move closer...

2024 Annual Forecast: China

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...
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