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January 25, 2024

The U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East may be a boon to India. The Houthi attacks, which have disrupted global shipping, allow New Delhi to enhance its naval power projection capabilities in the northwestern Indian Ocean. But Tehran’s own forays in the Red and Arabian seas could halt Indian advancements. Their interests will increasingly clash […]

Daily Memo: Poland and Germany Brace for Demos, Iranian and Russian Security Chiefs Meet

January 24, 2024

Protests in Europe. Farmers in Poland are holding nationwide protests on Wednesday against what they see as unfair competition from third countries, including Ukraine....

Fishing for the Fourth Institutional Cycle

January 24, 2024

I have written a great deal about socio-economic cycles but far less on institutional cycles, specifically how the fourth institutional cycle in American history...

Daily Memo: Airstrikes on Houthis, Iran and Pakistan Make Amends

January 23, 2024

Defending the Red Sea. The U.S. and the U.K. carried out another round of airstrikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen in response to...

The Middle East as a Powder Keg

January 23, 2024

In response to the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to change the Middle East. An Israeli army spokesman...

Daily Memo: Russia Steps Up Air Patrols Near Syria-Israel Border

January 22, 2024

Shielding Iran? Russia is increasing its military presence in southwestern Syria, near the border with Israel, to complicate and deter further Israeli airstrikes in...

The Future of an Escalating US-Iran Conflict

January 22, 2024

Iran’s efforts to challenge the United States in the Middle East are reaching an inflection point. After decades of reshaping the domestic political environments...

Daily Memo: NATO on Edge

January 19, 2024

Stark warnings. NATO member states should be prepared for a possible war with Russia within the next 20 years, a top NATO official warned...

2024 Annual Forecast: Latin America

January 19, 2024

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

Daily Memo: Pakistan Hits Back at Iran, Shippers Warn of Delays

January 18, 2024

Pakistan strikes back. Two days after Iran conducted missile strikes against militants in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, Pakistan responded with its own strikes in Iran’s...

2024 Annual Forecast: Japan

January 18, 2024

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...