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Daily Memo: Iran Strikes Target in Iraq, North Korea Rejects Reunification

Middle East escalation. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it launched an airstrike on an Israeli “espionage center” in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Tehran said the facility was used by Israel’s Mossad spy agency to “develop espionage operations and plan terrorist attacks” throughout the region, especially in Iran. Iraq summoned Iran’s charge d’affaires in response, calling […]

AUKUS in 2024

The trilateral security partnership comprising the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia – known simply as AUKUS – is among the most interesting...

Daily Memo: Taiwan Holds Elections, Manila Reveals Plans for the South China Sea

Historic vote. Taiwan held presidential and legislative elections on Saturday. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party, led by Vice President Lai Ching-te, won a historic...

2024 Annual Forecast: Russia

After the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia was in a state of crisis. Its economy slowly recovered thanks in part to an influx of technologies...

Daily Memo: Strikes Against the Houthis, More UK Aid for Ukraine

Retaliation. The United States and the United Kingdom launched strikes against targets linked to the Houthi rebels in Yemen in response to the group’s...

Europe Comes to Boil: the Balkans, Hungary and Russia

A few months ago, when Gaza joined Ukraine as a theater of intense war, I wrote about another potential conflict emerging in the Balkans....

Daily Memo: Declining Revenue for Russian Oil and Gas

Russia's energy sector. Russia’s Finance Ministry reported that revenue from oil and gas sales totaled 8.8 trillion rubles ($98 billion) in 2023, a 23.9...

2024 Annual Forecast: India’s Transformation

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

Daily Memo: US-China Talks, North Korean Weapons

Resuming dialogue. China and the United States held defense talks in Washington on Tuesday for the first time since 2022, when the meetings were...

Ukraine in 2024

The war in Gaza, an election year in the U.S., the continued disruption of supply chains and oil markets – whatever the reason, there...

Daily Memo: China’s Latest Anti-Corruption Push, Germany’s Change of Heart

Chinese campaign. Chinese President Xi Jinping called for a renewed push against corruption in a speech at a meeting of the Central Commission for...

The Coming War Between Israel and Hezbollah

Ever since the inconclusive 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, a rematch – and clear Israeli victory – has seemed inevitable. That conflict is now at hand....
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