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Daily Memo: Poland and Germany Brace for Demos, Iranian and Russian Security Chiefs Meet

Protests in Europe. Farmers in Poland are holding nationwide protests on Wednesday against what they see as unfair competition from third countries, including Ukraine. They’re calling on the government to end duty-free imports of agricultural products from countries outside the European Union that aren’t required to meet EU standards. Meanwhile, a union representing many of […]

Fishing for the Fourth Institutional Cycle

I have written a great deal about socio-economic cycles but far less on institutional cycles, specifically how the fourth institutional cycle in American history...

Daily Memo: Airstrikes on Houthis, Iran and Pakistan Make Amends

Defending the Red Sea. The U.S. and the U.K. carried out another round of airstrikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen in response to...

The Middle East as a Powder Keg

In response to the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to change the Middle East. An Israeli army spokesman...

Daily Memo: Russia Steps Up Air Patrols Near Syria-Israel Border

Shielding Iran? Russia is increasing its military presence in southwestern Syria, near the border with Israel, to complicate and deter further Israeli airstrikes in...

The Future of an Escalating US-Iran Conflict

Iran’s efforts to challenge the United States in the Middle East are reaching an inflection point. After decades of reshaping the domestic political environments...

Daily Memo: NATO on Edge

Stark warnings. NATO member states should be prepared for a possible war with Russia within the next 20 years, a top NATO official warned...

2024 Annual Forecast: Latin America

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

Daily Memo: Pakistan Hits Back at Iran, Shippers Warn of Delays

Pakistan strikes back. Two days after Iran conducted missile strikes against militants in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, Pakistan responded with its own strikes in Iran’s...

2024 Annual Forecast: Japan

Forecasting national behavior is built on continuums. One continuum is a nation’s history. Another is our analytic method. Simply looking at nations will not...

Daily Memo: Blowback Over Iranian Strikes Continues

With friends like these. Less than a day after Iran carried out missile strikes against targets in Iraq and Syria, Iranian missiles on Tuesday...

2024 Annual Forecast: Europe

Strikes and demonstrations are nothing new for Europe, but two factors distinguish the latest bout: its transnational nature and its concentration in specific economic...
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