Europe

New Strategic Documents Preserve Belarus’ Options

At the end of April, Belarus updated its Military Doctrine and its National Security Concept to respond to urgent security threats, regional volatility and...

Germany’s Future, According to Germans

From the war in Ukraine to economic uncertainties at home and across the Western world, Germany is facing a number of challenges with which...

European Views on US Global Posture

The notion that all countries operate within constraints is one of the main pillars of geopolitics. It came up repeatedly during my recent visit...

How Different Countries Respond to Terrorism

The fallout from Hamas’ Oct. 7 rampage through Israel and the March 22 massacre at Crocus City Hall near Moscow are dreadful reminders of...

Daily Memo: France Calls Out Azerbaijan, Russian Peacekeepers Go Home

French blowback. France recalled its ambassador to Azerbaijan for consultations after accusing Baku of taking “unilateral actions damaging to the relationship between our two...

The Hungarian Crisis

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Viktor Orban governed Hungary from 1998 to 2002 and again from 2010 to the present. In that time, he has dominated Hungarian politics and,...

NATO Weighs Its Future Ukraine Support

NATO marked its 75th anniversary last week. The moment was naturally accompanied by talk about the future of the Ukraine war and the alliance’s...

Our Trip to the Western Pacific

My wife and I are returning from a six-week trip spanning New Zealand, Australia and Japan. The trip’s purposes were both personal and work-related....

Fallout From the Attack in Russia

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Four days after the terrorist attack in Moscow, the most important question is how the Kremlin will respond – which itself will depend on...

European Defense and the Future of Ukraine

On Wednesday, European Union member states agreed to allocate an extra 5 billion euros ($5.4 billion) to the European Peace Facility by the end...

Europe’s Strategic Moment

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It’s been two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, so it’s time to lay out the strategic situation as I see it. In February 2022,...

European Farmer Protests

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(click to enlarge) Farmer protests have recently surged across Europe, shaking its agricultural heartlands. In Poland, a deep and broadening coalition of farmers is forming...

Daily Memo: Another Bank Blocks Russian Clients

Tightening the screws. China’s Chouzhou Commercial Bank is no longer conducting transactions with Russian and Belarusian clients, Russian business daily Vedomosti reported. Transactions using...

A Shift in Russian Wartime Policy?

Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti published a statement made by President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday that we regard as a significant shift in...

The World in 2024

Editor's note: Below are the compiled links to our entire 2024 annual forecast. Please follow the links for quick navigation, or download the PDF...

Global Forecast for the Next Year

This is not a detailed forecast of the fate of every country for 2024. Rather, it is an attempt to identify the main trends...

Latest Posts

The European Peninsula is facing two interlocking crises: first, the fragmentation in the European Union due to diverging national interests and, second, a shift in the relationship between the peninsula and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and economically dependent on its exports to the bloc. Therefore, Germany must maintain a cohesive eurozone and European Union, in order to safeguard its exports and shape the direction of Europe’s economic policies.

Europe suffers from regional divides with drastic employment and economic discrepancies between the north and south. An east and west divide, dating back to the Soviet era, also influence countries’ different outlooks towards foreign interactions.

Russia and the United States continue to have competing interests in Central and Eastern Europe.

Read Regional Assessment

Read Assessment of Germany

Required Reads: Europe

From our Forecast...

Inherent economic divisions will be aggravated by supply chain issues. Europe with Germany at its center will change into a Europe with no clear center.

Europe in our Memos

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Latest Posts

Daily Memo: Iran Shores Up Ties, Armenia Withdraws Funds From Russia-led Grouping

Iranian allies. The commander of Iran’s Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, reportedly visited Lebanon and Iraq in recent weeks. According to local reports, he was...

Israel’s Gaza Operation Nears the Endgame

The seven-month-old war between Israel and Hamas appears to have reached a decisive stage. While an end to the fighting remains elusive, it is...

Daily Memo: US Weapons for Israel, China-Serbia Trade Deal

Waning support. The United States last week delayed the delivery of bombs to Israel over concerns they could be used in an offensive on...

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