Europe

Ukraine Opens a New Front in Africa

In December 2025, a Russian oil tanker called the Qendil was struck by Ukrainian drones in the Mediterranean roughly 250 kilometers (155 miles) off...

George Answers Your Questions: Hungary and the Iran War

War and the Principles of the Negotiation Process April 13, 2026 Question: Your latest analysis finally introduces the true vector of this conflict: China. However, applying...

Hungary’s Landmark Election

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(click to enlarge) Parliamentary elections in Hungary on April 12 marked an end to the 16-year rule of Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party. Peter...

Daily Memo: Ukraine Aid, Russia-China Ties

Drones for Ukraine. The U.K. will deliver at least 120,000 drones to Ukraine by the end of the year, its largest-ever drone package for...

Hungary and Europe

Viktor Orban, after 16 years as prime minister of Hungary, has lost an election and will soon be replaced by Peter Magyar. Orban was...

The Future of Nuclear Modernization

During the Cold War, there was a certain logic to the nuclear balance of power that kept things relatively orderly. The ability to strike...

George Answers Your Questions: The Crisis of NATO, and China and the Iran Negotiations

The Crisis of NATO April 8, 2026 Question: For decades NATO has maintained that it is a defensive alliance, and this has been a central argument...

The Crisis of NATO

The crisis of NATO was triggered by the collapse of the Soviet Union. The alliance was created to protect the regions of Europe occupied...

Europe’s Second Energy Reckoning

The joint U.S.-Israeli military assault on Iran triggered the largest oil supply disruption in the history of global energy markets. For Europe, barely four...

George Answers Your Questions: Beyond Iran: China, Russia and Europe

Beyond Iran: China, Russia and Europe March 23, 2026 Question: Isn’t the Trump administration’s real goal in the Iran war to limit China’s future capability to...

Disinformation: A New Battlespace for Democracy

Democracies are inherently ill-prepared to deal with the proliferation of information warfare. While state-sponsored propaganda is by no means new, the digital age has...

How Iran Is Repricing Geography

Last week, the International Maritime Organization submitted a proposal to protect shipping in the Persian Gulf that’s modeled on the Black Sea grain initiative,...

Beyond Iran: China, Russia and Europe

The war in Iran continues, its outcome uncertain and length unknown. And though the conflict has already affected the global system significantly, things are...

EU Economies Can’t Catch a Break

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(click to enlarge) The European economy failed to sustain its modest momentum in the fourth quarter of 2025, with growth slowing to 0.2 percent compared...

George Answers Your Questions: European Nuclear Umbrella, Risks of a United Europe

Munich Security Conference and Europe’s Future Feb. 16, 2026 Question: Although the Europeans have some nuclear capability of their own, it is utterly insufficient to dissuade...

Shipbuilding: A Bellwether for Geopolitical Power

Geopolitical power today is built not only through armies and alliances but through geoeconomic power – the control of industrial systems, supply chains, technologies...

Latest Posts

The European Peninsula is facing two interlocking crises: first, the fragmentation in the European Union due to diverging national interests and, second, a shift in the relationship between the peninsula and the rest of Eurasia.

Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and economically dependent on its exports to the bloc. Therefore, Germany must maintain a cohesive eurozone and European Union, in order to safeguard its exports and shape the direction of Europe’s economic policies.

Europe suffers from regional divides with drastic employment and economic discrepancies between the north and south. An east and west divide, dating back to the Soviet era, also influence countries’ different outlooks towards foreign interactions.

Russia and the United States continue to have competing interests in Central and Eastern Europe.

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Read Assessment of Germany

From our Forecast...

Inherent economic divisions will be aggravated by supply chain issues. Europe with Germany at its center will change into a Europe with no clear center.

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Daily Memo: Europe’s Latest Defense Initiative

Naval project. Ten European countries have signed a statement of intent on establishing the terms for the Northern Navies Initiative, the head of Britain’s...

Japan’s Evolving Security Posture

Earlier this month, Japan announced that it will allow the sale of lethal weapons systems to a wider group of partners abroad, explicitly framing...

Live Discussion: Talking Geoeconomics

What are the most critical events happening in the world related to geoeconomics, and how do they relate to geopolitics? This week's ClubGPF live discussion brought together GPF Chairman George Friedman and Chief Geoeconomist Antonia Colibasanu for a focus on what we've been looking at in the world of geoeconomics as well as our upcoming product, GeoEconomic Lens. Club members asked about the future of the Strait of Hormuz, the shifting landscape of oil production and renewable energy, and naval power/control of the oceans as a critical intersection of geoeconomics and geopolitics.