Eurasia

How Wars End

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Wars – which I will define broadly as matters of military conflict sustained partly by the nature of the soldiers fighting and partly by...

The Trump-Putin Negotiations

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I normally avoid personalizing geopolitical events, since I regard nations, not leaders, to be the agents of history. But there are moments when the...

As Trade Changes, So Does US Defense

Reports from around the world suggest U.S. military policy is at odds with itself. On the one hand, the United States has pledged to...

Oil in the Trade War

Immediately after U.S. President Donald Trump announced his slew of tariffs last week, OPEC+ members, led by Russia and Saudi Arabia, announced a significant...

The Asian Aspect of the US-Russia Detente

The ongoing diplomacy between the United States and Russia suggests that the conflict in Ukraine will, at some point, come to an end. That...

US and Russia Find Common Ground in the Middle East

The United States and Russia held their third round of talks on Ukraine in Riyadh this week, reportedly focused on a ceasefire in the...

The Limits of a US-Russia Detente

The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are linked, at least in U.S. efforts to resolve them. In many ways, a contiguous shatter...

Engineering an End to the Ukraine War

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When the United States entered talks with North Vietnam near the end of the Vietnam War, it hadn’t been militarily defeated, but it had...

Russia’s Severe Labor Crunch

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(click to enlarge) The Kremlin needs higher production to meet the needs of the domestic economy, sustain exports and supply the military, but a severe...

Graphic Essay: The Evolution of NATO

For the past 75 years, NATO has been the de facto defender of Europe. Virtually every country on the Continent has its own armed...

Turkey and Turmoil in Europe and the Middle East

Massive changes on Turkey’s northern and southern flanks are reshaping its strategic landscape. U.S.-Russia diplomacy has important implications for European security, creating an opening...

Military Challenges and Opportunities in the Arctic

The U.S.-Russia talks to end the conflict in Ukraine are really about redefining the overall U.S.-Russia relationship, a process that will require both to...

The Ukraine War and the Consequences for Russia

I have come under criticism lately from those who challenge my view that Russia is in decline and is not a threat for the...

Reaction in the Russian Periphery

Though still in its early stages, forged U.S.-Russia diplomacy has compelled several nations on Russia’s periphery to rethink some of their strategic positions. Poland,...

Morality in Geopolitics

The negotiations over a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine war bring to light an uncomfortable truth: In geopolitics, ethics tend to be coincidental, not...

Ukraine’s Biggest Backers

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(click to enlarge) NATO states near Russia view Ukraine’s defense as essential to their own security, and the aid data bears this out. For the...

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How Wars End

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Central Asia is a highly strategic region traditionally trapped between several major powers but generally dominated by Russia, whose primary objective remains protecting the buffer zones that extend all the way to Eastern Europe.

The Russian government’s power depends on the security services, provision of economic incentives to a small group of elites and the acquiescence of the Russian population.

Ongoing regional and ethnic tensions threaten the unity of Central Asia and thus, sometimes, to the security of Russia.

Eurasia is highly exposed to Russia economically, especially when it comes to currencies, remittances and labor. Nevertheless, as the Russian economy weakens, partly due to the exporters’ crisis, its financial troubles are contributing to Central Asia’s slow destabilization.

While Russia is the dominant force, the economic slowdown in China, which is a major benefactor of much of Eurasia, is a major risk for Central Asian economies.

Regional Assessment of Russia

Regional Assessment of Central Asia

From our Forecast...

Russia will continue to conduct covert and non-military operations to take control and maintain control of its buffers.

Eurasia in our Memos

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Daily Memo: Updates on Russia-Ukraine and India-Pakistan

Kursk update. North Korea confirmed for the first time that it deployed troops to Russia to fight against Ukraine. According to state news agency...

How Wars End

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Wars – which I will define broadly as matters of military conflict sustained partly by the nature of the soldiers fighting and partly by...

Neighbors No More? The Shifting Ties of North America

Just a few months ago, Canada’s conservative party appeared a dead cert to win the country’s general election. But since the resignation of Justin Trudeau and the souring of relations between the US and its northern neighbor, the polls have quite literally flipped. Meanwhile, tariffs, border issues and suggestions of US troops in Mexico are creating concerns to America’s south. Like much of the world, North American geopolitics looks very different to six months ago. On this episode of the podcast, we continue our series on Trump’s second term in office as we look at the geopolitics of North America with GPF’s director of analysis, Allison Fedirka.

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