HomeReality Check

Reality Check

China, Trade and Artificial Islands

China is trying to convince the world of its military prowess in the South China Sea, just as trade talks heat up.

North Korea Manages Expectations, One Provocation at a Time

Pyongyang thinks a deal is possible that would end the standoff largely on its own terms.

NAFTA: Deadlines Pass as Talks Go On

All sides have a vested interest in keeping the agreement intact.

Italy Isn’t Done With the EU Just Yet

Its new leaders had to moderate their anti-establishment campaign stances.

Why Turkey and the UK’s Relationship Won’t Last

Their shared perspectives on Europe’s future are bringing them together.

Decision Time in Syria

It’s always been hard to tell just what everyone wanted in Syria. Thanks to Iran, we now have a clearer idea.

What’s at Stake in Iraq’s Elections

The government in Tehran will still have some degree of influence in Iraq regardless of who wins.

Argentina Seeks Help, Not Rescue

Turning to the IMF won’t be popular, but failure to reform is not an option.

The Case for North Korea’s Liberalization

China and Vietnam have tepidly embraced reform. Why can’t the Hermit Kingdom?

How the Iran Nuclear Deal Missed the Mark

Washington’s real concern isn’t nuclear weapons but Iranian expansion.

Beyond the Daily Distractions

These will be the week’s real front-page stories.

The Next Israeli War

Every day Iran fails to strike back makes it look weaker.

Latest Posts

Get Geopolitical Futures FREE newsletter

Understanding Our Geopolitical Model

Sign up now and receive our special report Understanding our Geopolitical Model

Get weekly analysis from New York Times bestselling author George Friedman and our global team of analysts, plus special offers.

Subscribe Now


The Geopolitics of the American President

FREE with an annual subscription to Geopolitical Futures.

Subscribe Now