2019 Forecast Preview: Part 1
2018 is coming to an end, so there’s no better time to think about the future. Every year, GPF produces an Annual Forecast that lays out the trends that will shape the international system, and 2019 is no different. The report, which publishes next week, will showcase predictions on the global economy, power politics in unlikely places, European disunion, developments in the Middle East and much more. In this week’s podcast, hosts Jacob and Cole will give you a sneak peek of what’s to come.
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Countries That Confuse Us
Geopolitics is slow and largely predictable, but anyone who claims to have all the answers for an international system as strange and as volatile as ours isn’t paying enough attention. Some countries are just plain difficult to understand, whatever the reason. For some, it’s a lack of data. For others, it’s unrealized potential. For others still, it’s overachievement. With our annual forecast on the horizon, this is the time of year when we revisit our assumptions about what makes the world go ‘round, especially the countries that are now the basis of political organization. So now is the perfect opportunity for Allison, Phil, Jacob and Cole to discuss the countries they can’t quite pin down.
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Not Another Cold War: Part 2
GPF Director of Analysis Jacob Shapiro welcomes Dr. Andrey Sushentsov, founder and head of Eurasian Strategies, to the show to discuss US-Russia relations and what Americans and Russians don’t understand about each other.
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Around the World with George Friedman
GPF Chairman George Friedman joins Director of Analysis Jacob Shapiro to give thoughts on issues ranging from new alliances in the Middle East to US-China relations. Also: how bad is the societal divide in the United States?
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If Iran Went Nuclear, Would It Even Matter?
The heat is on Iran. Its economy is faltering. The currency is falling. The people are protesting. The government is threatening to close down the Strait of Hormuz. Renewed U.S. sanctions didn’t directly cause all these problems, of course, but they sure didn’t help. And they wouldn’t be an issue had U.S. stayed party to the Iran nuclear agreement. Is this the end of the reconciliation, or just a minor setback? If the deal is forever dead, will Iran now go nuclear? Would doing so achieve its regional objectives? Does deterrence strategy still hold? In this episode, recorded not-live but in-person, Jacob, Cole, Phil and special guest Ryan answer these questions and probably a lot of others you never thought to ask. And they do it without the comfort of an air conditioner.
Turkey and the US: An On-Again, Off-Again Relationship
The U.S. and Turkey have a lot of big mutual problems (Iran, the Islamic State, Bashar Assad) yet seem to be preoccupied by much smaller ones (pastors and alleged deep state operatives). To help explain why this is so, this week’s episode checks in on the status of U.S.-Turkey relations. Also, what’s with the stories about Rex Tillerson preventing a Saudi invasion of Qatar?
The Problem with ‘Populism’
Is populism an ideology? Is it a political tool? A political weapon? The term has been bastardized over the years, so much so that it is nearly devoid of any meaning, and yet it is invoked nearly every day, levied against politicians of every political persuasion in every region of the world. In this week’s episode, the team digs into what it means to be populist and applies it to Mexico’s newly elected president.
Surveillance: What Russia Does is Bluff
George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures Chairman, says that a great deal of what Russia does is a “bluff.” He spoke with Bloomberg Surveillance’s Tom Keene on the day of the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki.
Is NATO Obsolete?
This week, the head of NATO wrote a column politely reminding everyone about the use of the military alliance. Can NATO continue to meet the needs of all its members?
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Italy’s View of France and Germany
GPF Director Jacob Shapiro welcomes special guest Dario Fabbri, Senior Analyst at Limes, to talk about Italy’s view of Europe. Along the way, they touch on Italy’s relationship with the U.S., Germany’s lack of strategy and France’s double-edged demographic advantage.
Intro music: Antonio Vivaldi, Concerto No. 1 In E major, performed by John Harrison (violin) with Robert Turizziani conducting the Wichita State University Chamber Players.
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Making Sense of the North Korea Talks
The unprecedented meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un raises an important question: So what?
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War Games, Malaysian Intrigue, the ‘Libya Model’
This week, Jacob and Cole stitch together a few separate recordings that were made throughout the week. We have George Friedman with a special guest on war games, Phillip Orchard on Malaysia’s political drama, and Xander Snyder on the so-called Libya model. Also, basketball.
Music credit for this week’s podcast: Paul Cantrell playing Frédéric Chopin’s Prelude Op. 28, No. 4, and “Off to The Shaman For Ancient Medicines” by The Koreatown.
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