HomeFrom the Desk of George Friedman

From the Desk of George Friedman

On the Leaks of a War With China

Over the past few days, two senior U.S. officials – Gen. Mike Minihan, the head of the U.S. Air Force Mobility Command, and Michael...

Forecast for 2023

Our 2023 Annual Forecast, like those before it, is an attempt to provide a sense of the direction of the world. We do this...

Tech and Geopolitical Cycles

There have been seemingly endless reports of massive layoffs in the tech industry. Partly they are due to economic circumstances, of course, but overlooked...

Slouching Into Bethlehem

In his poem titled “The Second Coming,” William Butler Yeats asks what kind of “beast … slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?” Perhaps he...

The Wagner Group and Russia’s New General

Moscow has relieved its current general in Ukraine, placing him under the staff of his successor, Gen. Valery Gerasimov. In a way, this makes...

China and the Philippines

Last week, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visited President Xi Jinping in China, where they agreed to cooperate in peace and security operations and...

Putting the World in Perspective

In working on GPF’s Annual Forecast recently, I was looking for ways to measure national power and differentiate countries with large mouths from countries...

In Cuba, Russia Explores a Counter

Yesterday, Russia announced that President Vladimir Putin would have an important phone call later in the day, without revealing whom he would talk to....

The State of Play in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine seems permanent. Neither side appears capable of destroying the opposing force or articulating what it would take to reach a...

Two Holidays

Editor’s note: As we approach the end of the year, now is the perfect time to reflect on what the holiday season means to...

The Effectiveness of an Air War

The Russians have initiated a concentrated air attack on Ukraine focused on the use of drones. The target is civilian and industrial infrastructure, primarily...

On Jet Lag

As I mentioned to some of you in our ClubGPF discussion this week, Meredith and I spent the past six weeks traveling. We went...

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